JThom Analytics Logo
Michigan State logo

Michigan State #11

Team Page

25-7
Overall
15-5
Conference
100%
NCAA Bid
4.0
Avg Seed
Big Ten logo

Team Schedule

Michigan State logo

Away

6-4
Michigan logo
#2
Purdue logo
#8
Nebraska logo
#18
Wisconsin logo
#21
Indiana logo
#44
Washington logo
#51
Minnesota logo
#72
Oregon logo
#96
Rutgers logo
#118
Penn State logo
#140

Neutral

4-1
UCLA logo
#26
Kentucky logo
#27
North Carolina logo
#35
Oakland logo
#177
East Carolina logo
#256

Home

15-2
Duke logo
#1
Michigan logo
#2
Illinois logo
#6
Arkansas logo
#16
Ohio State logo
#23
Iowa logo
#25
UCLA logo
#26
Indiana logo
#44
Northwestern logo
#60
USC logo
#86
Maryland logo
#112
Rutgers logo
#118
Toledo logo
#132
Cornell logo
#157
Detroit logo
#213
San Jose State logo
#227
Colgate logo
#240

Schedule Chart

Michigan State logo
DateLocOppRtgWin %#50 Win%Score
Nov 3Home
Colgate logo
#24099%97%80-69
Nov 8Home
Arkansas logo
#1668%37%69-66
Nov 13Home
San Jose State logo
#22799%96%79-60
Nov 18Neutral
Kentucky logo
#2767%35%83-66
Nov 21Home
Detroit logo
#21399%95%84-56
Nov 25Neutral
East Carolina logo
#25699%96%89-56
Nov 27Neutral
North Carolina logo
#3572%41%74-58
Dec 2Home
Iowa logo
#2575%46%71-52
Dec 6Home
Duke logo
#140%16%60-66
Dec 13Away
Penn State logo
#14093%78%76-72
Dec 16Home
Toledo logo
#13297%89%92-69
Dec 20Neutral
Oakland logo
#17797%90%79-70
Dec 29Home
Cornell logo
#15798%92%114-97
Jan 2Away
Nebraska logo
#1846%19%56-58
Jan 5Home
USC logo
#8693%78%80-51
Jan 8Home
Northwestern logo
#6089%70%76-66
Jan 13Home
Indiana logo
#4483%58%81-60
Jan 17Away
Washington logo
#5171%41%80-63
Jan 20Away
Oregon logo
#9686%63%68-52
Jan 24Home
Maryland logo
#11296%86%91-48
Jan 27Away
Rutgers logo
#11890%71%88-79
Jan 30Home
Michigan logo
#240%16%71-83
Feb 4Away
Minnesota logo
#7279%52%73-76
Feb 7Home
Illinois logo
#653%24%85-82
Feb 13Away
Wisconsin logo
#2148%21%71-92
Feb 17Home
UCLA logo
#2675%46%82-59
Feb 22Home
Ohio State logo
#2374%44%66-60
Feb 26Away
Purdue logo
#833%12%76-74
Mar 1Away
Indiana logo
#4465%34%77-64
Mar 5Home
Rutgers logo
#11896%87%91-87
Mar 8Away
Michigan logo
#220%7%80-90
Mar 13Neutral
UCLA logo
#2666%34%84-88

Schedule Difficulty

Team logo
0%7%10%18%20%27%30%34%40%43%50%52%60%57%70%66%80%75%90%83%100%95%MichiganPurdueDukeMichiganNebraskaWisconsinIllinoisUCLAIndianaKentuckyArkansasWashingtonNorth CarolinaOhio StateIowaUCLAMinnesotaIndianaOregonNorthwesternRutgersUSCPenn StateMarylandRutgersToledoOaklandCornellDifficulty Percentile: Games <95% Probability for 50th Rated TeamWin Probability of 50th Rated TeamHardestEasiest (95% threshold)> 95% Probability Games4-0, 0 left
Record:
25-7
#50 Fcst:
17.7-14.3
Act Win %:
78%
#50 Fcst %:
55%
TWV:
+7.3
Win
Loss
Future Game
Comparing 28 games vs 2,190 total <95% games in dataset

Wins to Seed Map

Michigan State logo
0510152025Colgate Location: Home 11/03 Win Probability: 99%99%H1San Jose State Location: Home 11/13 Win Probability: 99%99%H2East Carolina Location: Neutral 11/25 Win Probability: 99%99%N3Detroit Location: Home 11/21 Win Probability: 99%99%H4Cornell Location: Home 12/29 Win Probability: 98%98%H5Oakland Location: Neutral 12/20 Win Probability: 97%97%N6Toledo Location: Home 12/16 Win Probability: 97%97%H7Rutgers Location: Home 03/05 Win Probability: 96%96%H8Maryland Location: Home 01/24 Win Probability: 96%96%H9Penn State Location: Away 12/13 Win Probability: 93%93%A10USC Location: Home 01/05 Win Probability: 93%93%H11Rutgers Location: Away 01/27 Win Probability: 90%90%A12Northwestern Location: Home 01/08 Win Probability: 89%89%H13Oregon Location: Away 01/20 Win Probability: 86%86%A14Indiana Location: Home 01/13 Win Probability: 83%83%H15UCLA Location: Home 02/17 Win Probability: 75%75%H16Iowa Location: Home 12/02 Win Probability: 75%75%H17Ohio State Location: Home 02/22 Win Probability: 74%74%H18North Carolina Location: Neutral 11/27 Win Probability: 72%72%N19Washington Location: Away 01/17 Win Probability: 71%71%A20Arkansas Location: Home 11/08 Win Probability: 68%68%H21Kentucky Location: Neutral 11/18 Win Probability: 67%67%N22Indiana Location: Away 03/01 Win Probability: 65%65%A23Illinois Location: Home 02/07 Win Probability: 53%53%H24Purdue Location: Away 02/26 Win Probability: 33%33%A2525WinProbLocGameOppWinsNCAASeed- wins to date- future games- JThom proj winsWin Prob = probability team would win vs opponent;Loc = location of the game (H=Home, A=Away, N=Neutral)Game = current wins and count of potential remaining games; Opp = Opponent;NCAA Seed = expected seed by winsProjected seed range for team based on number of victories.Schedule strength factors into range that is identified.Proj Wins is average total wins in regular season and conferencetournament by team based on 1,000 season simulations using compositeratings based on kenpom, barttorvik and evanmiya.

Win Values Over Time

Team logo

NCAA Tournament Seed Projections

Team logo
WinsSeedNCAA Tourney StatusBid CategoryTotal
4In Tourney %First Four OutNext Four OutOut of TourneyAuto BidAt Large
25100%100%100%100%
Total100%100%100%

Rating History

Loading rank history...

Projected Wins History

Loading historical data...

Projected Standings History

Loading historical data...

First Place Probability History

Loading historical data...

NCAA Tournament Bid History

Loading NCAA bid history...

NCAA Tournament Progression History

Loading NCAA progression history...