JThom Analytics Logo
Duke logo

Duke #1

Team Page

32-2
Overall
17-1
Conference
100%
NCAA Bid
1.0
Avg Seed
Atlantic Coast logo

Team Schedule

Duke logo

Away

10-1
Michigan State logo
#11
Louisville logo
#19
North Carolina logo
#35
North Carolina State logo
#36
Virginia Tech logo
#55
Florida State logo
#58
Stanford logo
#62
California logo
#74
Notre Dame logo
#93
Pittsburgh logo
#100
Army logo
#338

Neutral

7-1
Michigan logo
#2
Virginia logo
#14
Arkansas logo
#16
Kansas logo
#20
Texas Tech logo
#22
Clemson logo
#32
Texas logo
#42
Florida State logo
#58

Home

15-0
Florida logo
#4
Virginia logo
#14
Louisville logo
#19
Clemson logo
#32
North Carolina logo
#35
SMU logo
#43
Wake Forest logo
#67
Syracuse logo
#83
Boston College logo
#143
Georgia Tech logo
#158
Howard logo
#196
Indiana State logo
#206
Western Carolina logo
#216
Lipscomb logo
#218
Niagara logo
#335

Schedule Chart

Duke logo
DateLocOppRtgWin %#50 Win%Score
Nov 4Neutral
Texas logo
#4288%43%75-60
Nov 8Home
Western Carolina logo
#21699%96%95-54
Nov 11Away
Army logo
#338100%98%114-59
Nov 14Home
Indiana State logo
#20699%95%100-62
Nov 18Neutral
Kansas logo
#2079%28%78-66
Nov 21Home
Niagara logo
#335100%99%100-42
Nov 23Home
Howard logo
#19699%95%93-56
Nov 27Neutral
Arkansas logo
#1677%26%80-71
Dec 2Home
Florida logo
#470%21%67-66
Dec 6Away
Michigan State logo
#1160%15%66-60
Dec 16Home
Lipscomb logo
#21899%96%97-73
Dec 20Neutral
Texas Tech logo
#2281%31%81-82
Dec 31Home
Georgia Tech logo
#15899%92%85-79
Jan 3Away
Florida State logo
#5888%45%91-87
Jan 6Away
Louisville logo
#1967%19%84-73
Jan 10Home
SMU logo
#4392%56%82-75
Jan 14Away
California logo
#7490%52%71-56
Jan 17Away
Stanford logo
#6289%47%80-50
Jan 24Home
Wake Forest logo
#6796%73%90-69
Jan 26Home
Louisville logo
#1984%38%83-52
Jan 31Away
Virginia Tech logo
#5587%43%72-58
Feb 3Home
Boston College logo
#14399%91%67-49
Feb 7Away
North Carolina logo
#3579%30%68-71
Feb 10Away
Pittsburgh logo
#10094%65%70-54
Feb 14Home
Clemson logo
#3290%52%67-54
Feb 16Home
Syracuse logo
#8397%77%101-64
Feb 21Neutral
Michigan logo
#250%10%68-63
Feb 24Away
Notre Dame logo
#9393%62%100-56
Feb 28Home
Virginia logo
#1482%35%77-51
Mar 2Away
North Carolina State logo
#3679%31%93-64
Mar 7Home
North Carolina logo
#3591%54%76-61
Mar 12Neutral
Florida State logo
#5893%57%80-79
Mar 13Neutral
Clemson logo
#3286%40%73-61
Mar 14Neutral
Virginia logo
#1475%24%74-70

Schedule Difficulty

Team logo
0%7%10%18%20%27%30%34%40%43%50%52%60%57%70%66%80%75%90%83%100%95%MichiganMichigan StateLouisvilleFloridaVirginiaArkansasKansasNorth CarolinaTexas TechNorth Carolina StateVirginiaLouisvilleClemsonTexasVirginia TechFlorida StateStanfordCaliforniaClemsonNorth CarolinaSMUFlorida StateNotre DamePittsburghWake ForestSyracuseBoston CollegeGeorgia TechHowardDifficulty Percentile: Games <95% Probability for 50th Rated TeamWin Probability of 50th Rated TeamHardestEasiest (95% threshold)> 95% Probability Games5-0, 0 left
Record:
32-2
#50 Fcst:
18.3-15.7
Act Win %:
94%
#50 Fcst %:
54%
TWV:
+13.7
Win
Loss
Future Game
Comparing 29 games vs 2,190 total <95% games in dataset

Wins to Seed Map

Duke logo
051015202530Niagara Location: Home 11/21 Win Probability: 100%100%H1Army Location: Away 11/11 Win Probability: 100%100%A2Lipscomb Location: Home 12/16 Win Probability: 99%99%H3Western Carolina Location: Home 11/08 Win Probability: 99%99%H4Indiana State Location: Home 11/14 Win Probability: 99%99%H5Howard Location: Home 11/23 Win Probability: 99%99%H6Georgia Tech Location: Home 12/31 Win Probability: 99%99%H7Boston College Location: Home 02/03 Win Probability: 99%99%H8Syracuse Location: Home 02/16 Win Probability: 97%97%H9Wake Forest Location: Home 01/24 Win Probability: 96%96%H10Pittsburgh Location: Away 02/10 Win Probability: 94%94%A11Notre Dame Location: Away 02/24 Win Probability: 93%93%A12Florida State Location: Neutral 03/12 Win Probability: 93%93%N13SMU Location: Home 01/10 Win Probability: 92%92%H14North Carolina Location: Home 03/07 Win Probability: 91%91%H15Clemson Location: Home 02/14 Win Probability: 90%90%H16California Location: Away 01/14 Win Probability: 90%90%A17Stanford Location: Away 01/17 Win Probability: 89%89%A18Texas Location: Neutral 11/04 Win Probability: 88%88%N19Florida State Location: Away 01/03 Win Probability: 88%88%A20Virginia Tech Location: Away 01/31 Win Probability: 87%87%A21Clemson Location: Neutral 03/13 Win Probability: 86%86%N22Louisville Location: Home 01/26 Win Probability: 84%84%H23Virginia Location: Home 02/28 Win Probability: 82%82%H24North Carolina State Location: Away 03/02 Win Probability: 79%79%A25Kansas Location: Neutral 11/18 Win Probability: 79%79%N26Arkansas Location: Neutral 11/27 Win Probability: 77%77%N27Virginia Location: Neutral 03/14 Win Probability: 75%75%N28Florida Location: Home 12/02 Win Probability: 70%70%H29Louisville Location: Away 01/06 Win Probability: 67%67%A30Michigan State Location: Away 12/06 Win Probability: 60%60%A31Michigan Location: Neutral 02/21 Win Probability: 50%50%N3232WinProbLocGameOppWinsNCAASeed- wins to date- future games- JThom proj winsWin Prob = probability team would win vs opponent;Loc = location of the game (H=Home, A=Away, N=Neutral)Game = current wins and count of potential remaining games; Opp = Opponent;NCAA Seed = expected seed by winsProjected seed range for team based on number of victories.Schedule strength factors into range that is identified.Proj Wins is average total wins in regular season and conferencetournament by team based on 1,000 season simulations using compositeratings based on kenpom, barttorvik and evanmiya.

Win Values Over Time

Team logo

NCAA Tournament Seed Projections

Team logo
WinsSeedNCAA Tourney StatusBid CategoryTotal
1In Tourney %First Four OutNext Four OutOut of TourneyAuto BidAt Large
32100%100%100%100%
Total100%100%100%

Rating History

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Projected Wins History

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Projected Standings History

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First Place Probability History

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NCAA Tournament Bid History

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NCAA Tournament Progression History

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