JThom Analytics Logo
Toledo logo

Toledo #132

Team Page

17-17
Overall
11-7
Conference
0%
NCAA Bid
-
Avg Seed
Mid-American logo

Team Schedule

Toledo logo

Away

5-9
Michigan State logo
#11
Akron logo
#63
Miami (OH) logo
#90
Wright State logo
#135
Robert Morris logo
#149
Kent State logo
#152
Bowling Green logo
#154
Oakland logo
#177
Massachusetts logo
#188
James Madison logo
#202
Ohio logo
#223
Central Michigan logo
#262
Western Michigan logo
#280
Northern Illinois logo
#343

Neutral

3-2
Akron logo
#63
Belmont logo
#69
Troy logo
#134
Bowling Green logo
#154
Massachusetts logo
#188

Home

9-4
Miami (OH) logo
#90
Kent State logo
#152
Bowling Green logo
#154
South Alabama logo
#195
Marshall logo
#200
Youngstown State logo
#208
Detroit logo
#213
Buffalo logo
#217
Ohio logo
#223
Eastern Michigan logo
#255
Ball State logo
#279
Western Michigan logo
#280
Northern Illinois logo
#343
Central State logo
Non D1
Lourdes logo
Non D1

Schedule Chart

Toledo logo
DateLocOppRtgWin %#50 Win%Score
Nov 3Home
South Alabama logo
#19577%95%74-76
Nov 8Home
Marshall logo
#20078%95%73-85
Nov 11Away
Wright State logo
#13540%77%81-71
Nov 15Home
Detroit logo
#21380%95%90-83
Nov 19Home
Youngstown State logo
#20879%95%92-75
Nov 24Neutral
Troy logo
#13451%85%75-68
Nov 26Neutral
Belmont logo
#6924%63%72-87
Dec 1Home
Central State logo
Non D1100%100%
Dec 6Away
Oakland logo
#17751%84%97-98
Dec 13Away
Robert Morris logo
#14944%80%70-75
Dec 16Away
Michigan State logo
#113%15%69-92
Dec 20Home
Lourdes logo
Non D1100%100%
Dec 30Home
Western Michigan logo
#28090%98%84-79
Jan 3Away
Central Michigan logo
#26273%93%78-75
Jan 6Away
Northern Illinois logo
#34391%98%75-61
Jan 9Home
Miami (OH) logo
#9043%80%73-87
Jan 13Home
Ohio logo
#22383%96%101-85
Jan 16Away
Kent State logo
#15244%80%84-87
Jan 20Away
Massachusetts logo
#18854%86%82-84
Jan 24Home
Bowling Green logo
#15468%92%73-72
Jan 27Away
Akron logo
#6315%48%81-91
Jan 31Home
Ball State logo
#27990%98%73-55
Feb 3Home
Kent State logo
#15268%91%72-75
Feb 7Away
James Madison logo
#20258%88%71-73
Feb 11Away
Western Michigan logo
#28077%95%90-79
Feb 14Away
Bowling Green logo
#15445%80%70-80
Feb 21Home
Eastern Michigan logo
#25587%97%94-75
Feb 24Home
Northern Illinois logo
#34396%99%79-69
Feb 28Away
Ohio logo
#22364%90%79-67
Mar 3Away
Miami (OH) logo
#9022%59%72-74
Mar 6Home
Buffalo logo
#21781%96%99-78
Mar 12Neutral
Bowling Green logo
#15457%88%77-76
Mar 13Neutral
Massachusetts logo
#18866%91%77-67
Mar 14Neutral
Akron logo
#6322%61%76-79

Schedule Difficulty

Team logo
0%7%10%18%20%27%30%34%40%43%50%52%60%57%70%66%80%75%90%83%100%95%Michigan StateAkronMiami (OH)AkronBelmontWright StateMiami (OH)Robert MorrisKent StateBowling GreenOaklandTroyMassachusettsJames MadisonBowling GreenOhioMassachusettsKent StateBowling GreenCentral MichiganSouth AlabamaWestern MichiganMarshallDifficulty Percentile: Games <95% Probability for 50th Rated TeamWin Probability of 50th Rated TeamHardestEasiest (95% threshold)> 95% Probability Games9-0, 2 left
Record:
17-15
#50 Fcst:
26.9-5.1
Act Win %:
53%
#50 Fcst %:
84%
TWV:
-9.9
Win
Loss
Future Game
Comparing 23 games vs 2,190 total <95% games in dataset

Wins to Seed Map

Toledo logo
051015Central State Location: Home 12/01 Win Probability: 100%100%H18Lourdes Location: Home 12/20 Win Probability: 100%100%H19Northern Illinois Location: Home 02/24 Win Probability: 96%96%H1Northern Illinois Location: Away 01/06 Win Probability: 91%91%A2Western Michigan Location: Home 12/30 Win Probability: 90%90%H3Ball State Location: Home 01/31 Win Probability: 90%90%H4Eastern Michigan Location: Home 02/21 Win Probability: 87%87%H5Ohio Location: Home 01/13 Win Probability: 83%83%H6Buffalo Location: Home 03/06 Win Probability: 81%81%H7Detroit Location: Home 11/15 Win Probability: 80%80%H8Youngstown State Location: Home 11/19 Win Probability: 79%79%H9Western Michigan Location: Away 02/11 Win Probability: 77%77%A10Central Michigan Location: Away 01/03 Win Probability: 73%73%A11Bowling Green Location: Home 01/24 Win Probability: 68%68%H12Massachusetts Location: Neutral 03/13 Win Probability: 66%66%N13Ohio Location: Away 02/28 Win Probability: 64%64%A14Bowling Green Location: Neutral 03/12 Win Probability: 57%57%N15Troy Location: Neutral 11/24 Win Probability: 51%51%N16Wright State Location: Away 11/11 Win Probability: 40%40%A1717WinProbLocGameOppWinsNCAASeed- wins to date- future games- JThom proj winsWin Prob = probability team would win vs opponent;Loc = location of the game (H=Home, A=Away, N=Neutral)Game = current wins and count of potential remaining games; Opp = Opponent;NCAA Seed = expected seed by winsProjected seed range for team based on number of victories.Schedule strength factors into range that is identified.Proj Wins is average total wins in regular season and conferencetournament by team based on 1,000 season simulations using compositeratings based on kenpom, barttorvik and evanmiya.

Win Values Over Time

Team logo

NCAA Tournament Seed Projections

Team logo
WinsNCAA Tourney StatusBid CategoryTotal
In Tourney %First Four OutNext Four OutOut of TourneyAuto BidAt Large
17100%100%
Total100%

Rating History

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Projected Wins History

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Projected Standings History

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First Place Probability History

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NCAA Tournament Bid History

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NCAA Tournament Progression History

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