JThom Analytics Logo
Troy logo

Troy #134

Team Page

20-13
Overall
12-6
Conference
100%
NCAA Bid
15.0
Avg Seed
Sun Belt logo

Team Schedule

Troy logo

Away

9-7
San Diego State logo
#48
USC logo
#86
UAB logo
#128
Arkansas State logo
#146
Kent State logo
#152
Loyola Marymount logo
#162
CSUN logo
#178
Furman logo
#179
South Alabama logo
#195
Southern Miss logo
#219
Georgia Southern logo
#228
Texas State logo
#231
Old Dominion logo
#234
Louisiana-Lafayette logo
#301
Georgia State logo
#315
Louisiana-Monroe logo
#356

Neutral

3-1
Toledo logo
#132
Southern Miss logo
#219
Georgia Southern logo
#228
Saint Francis U logo
#354

Home

8-3
Akron logo
#63
Arkansas State logo
#146
Appalachian State logo
#184
South Alabama logo
#195
Marshall logo
#200
James Madison logo
#202
Southern Miss logo
#219
Texas State logo
#231
West Georgia logo
#297
Louisiana-Lafayette logo
#301
Louisiana-Monroe logo
#356
LaGrange logo
Non D1
Pensacola Christian College logo
Non D1

Schedule Chart

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DateLocOppRtgWin %#50 Win%Score
Nov 3Away
Kent State logo
#15243%80%103-97
Nov 7Away
Furman logo
#17951%85%64-61
Nov 11Home
Pensacola Christian College logo
Non D1100%100%
Nov 14Away
Loyola Marymount logo
#16245%81%63-74
Nov 16Away
CSUN logo
#17851%84%85-94
Nov 18Away
San Diego State logo
#4810%37%108-107
Nov 20Away
USC logo
#8620%57%106-107
Nov 24Neutral
Toledo logo
#13249%84%68-75
Nov 26Neutral
Saint Francis U logo
#35496%99%74-64
Dec 1Home
West Georgia logo
#29792%98%89-93
Dec 6Home
LaGrange logo
Non D1100%100%
Dec 14Away
UAB logo
#12836%75%86-85
Dec 20Home
Marshall logo
#20078%95%70-63
Dec 31Home
Texas State logo
#23184%96%100-80
Jan 3Home
South Alabama logo
#19577%95%59-49
Jan 7Away
Arkansas State logo
#14642%79%74-86
Jan 10Away
Louisiana-Lafayette logo
#30181%96%90-70
Jan 14Home
Southern Miss logo
#21981%96%91-65
Jan 17Home
Arkansas State logo
#14666%91%99-74
Jan 21Away
Old Dominion logo
#23467%92%83-77
Jan 24Away
Georgia Southern logo
#22866%91%83-78
Jan 29Home
James Madison logo
#20278%95%64-73
Jan 31Home
Appalachian State logo
#18474%94%44-66
Feb 4Away
Georgia State logo
#31584%96%74-63
Feb 7Home
Akron logo
#6332%71%79-69
Feb 11Away
Texas State logo
#23166%91%62-74
Feb 14Away
Southern Miss logo
#21962%89%65-69
Feb 18Away
Louisiana-Monroe logo
#35693%99%77-76
Feb 21Away
South Alabama logo
#19555%87%54-65
Feb 24Home
Louisiana-Lafayette logo
#30192%98%78-59
Feb 27Home
Louisiana-Monroe logo
#35697%99%80-65
Mar 8Neutral
Southern Miss logo
#21973%94%78-70
Mar 9Neutral
Georgia Southern logo
#22877%95%77-61

Schedule Difficulty

Team logo
0%7%10%18%20%27%30%34%40%43%50%52%60%57%70%66%80%75%90%83%100%95%San Diego StateUSCAkronUABArkansas StateKent StateLoyola MarymountToledoCSUNFurmanSouth AlabamaSouthern MissGeorgia SouthernArkansas StateTexas StateOld DominionSouthern MissAppalachian StateSouth AlabamaGeorgia SouthernMarshallDifficulty Percentile: Games <95% Probability for 50th Rated TeamWin Probability of 50th Rated TeamHardestEasiest (95% threshold)> 95% Probability Games8-2, 2 left
Record:
20-11
#50 Fcst:
27.2-3.8
Act Win %:
65%
#50 Fcst %:
88%
TWV:
-7.2
Win
Loss
Future Game
Comparing 21 games vs 2,190 total <95% games in dataset

Wins to Seed Map

Troy logo
05101520Pensacola Christian College Location: Home 11/11 Win Probability: 100%100%H21LaGrange Location: Home 12/06 Win Probability: 100%100%H22Louisiana-Monroe Location: Home 02/27 Win Probability: 97%97%H1Saint Francis U Location: Neutral 11/26 Win Probability: 96%96%N2Louisiana-Monroe Location: Away 02/18 Win Probability: 93%93%A3Louisiana-Lafayette Location: Home 02/24 Win Probability: 92%92%H4Texas State Location: Home 12/31 Win Probability: 84%84%H5Georgia State Location: Away 02/04 Win Probability: 84%84%A6Louisiana-Lafayette Location: Away 01/10 Win Probability: 81%81%A7Southern Miss Location: Home 01/14 Win Probability: 81%81%H8Marshall Location: Home 12/20 Win Probability: 78%78%H9South Alabama Location: Home 01/03 Win Probability: 77%77%H10Georgia Southern Location: Neutral 03/09 Win Probability: 77%77%N11Southern Miss Location: Neutral 03/08 Win Probability: 73%73%N12Old Dominion Location: Away 01/21 Win Probability: 67%67%A13Arkansas State Location: Home 01/17 Win Probability: 66%66%H14Georgia Southern Location: Away 01/24 Win Probability: 66%66%A15Furman Location: Away 11/07 Win Probability: 51%51%A16Kent State Location: Away 11/03 Win Probability: 43%43%A17UAB Location: Away 12/14 Win Probability: 36%36%A18Akron Location: Home 02/07 Win Probability: 32%32%H19San Diego State Location: Away 11/18 Win Probability: 10%10%A2020WinProbLocGameOppWinsNCAASeed- wins to date- future games- JThom proj winsWin Prob = probability team would win vs opponent;Loc = location of the game (H=Home, A=Away, N=Neutral)Game = current wins and count of potential remaining games; Opp = Opponent;NCAA Seed = expected seed by winsProjected seed range for team based on number of victories.Schedule strength factors into range that is identified.Proj Wins is average total wins in regular season and conferencetournament by team based on 1,000 season simulations using compositeratings based on kenpom, barttorvik and evanmiya.

Win Values Over Time

Team logo

NCAA Tournament Seed Projections

Team logo
WinsSeedNCAA Tourney StatusBid CategoryTotal
1415In Tourney %First Four OutNext Four OutOut of TourneyAuto BidAt Large
205%95%100%100%100%
Total5%95%100%100%

Rating History

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Projected Wins History

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Projected Standings History

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First Place Probability History

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NCAA Tournament Bid History

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NCAA Tournament Progression History

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