JThom Analytics Logo
Valparaiso logo

Valparaiso #165

Team Page

17-16
Overall
11-9
Conference
0%
NCAA Bid
-
Avg Seed
Missouri Valley logo

Team Schedule

Valparaiso logo

Away

4-10
Kentucky logo
#27
Northwestern logo
#60
Northern Iowa logo
#66
Belmont logo
#69
Marquette logo
#79
Illinois State logo
#101
UIC logo
#106
Bradley logo
#122
Southern Illinois logo
#123
Murray State logo
#129
Indiana State logo
#206
Drake logo
#207
Evansville logo
#313
Cleveland State logo
#324

Neutral

1-1
Bradley logo
#122
Indiana State logo
#206

Home

12-4
Northern Iowa logo
#66
Belmont logo
#69
Illinois State logo
#101
UIC logo
#106
UNCW logo
#114
Bradley logo
#122
Southern Illinois logo
#123
Murray State logo
#129
Indiana State logo
#206
Drake logo
#207
Nicholls logo
#247
Western Michigan logo
#280
Evansville logo
#313
Eastern Illinois logo
#326
Southern Indiana logo
#339
Bryant logo
#355
Calumet College logo
Non D1

Schedule Chart

Valparaiso logo
DateLocOppRtgWin %#50 Win%Score
Nov 4Home
Eastern Illinois logo
#32692%99%66-63
Nov 7Away
Kentucky logo
#274%25%59-107
Nov 12Home
Nicholls logo
#24780%97%68-63
Nov 16Home
Bryant logo
#35596%99%68-50
Nov 19Away
Cleveland State logo
#32480%97%90-75
Nov 26Home
Southern Indiana logo
#33994%99%56-64
Nov 29Home
Western Michigan logo
#28086%98%84-55
Dec 2Away
Marquette logo
#7913%53%72-75
Dec 6Home
Calumet College logo
Non D1100%100%
Dec 13Home
UNCW logo
#11444%86%70-73
Dec 16Away
Northwestern logo
#6010%47%70-86
Dec 21Home
Murray State logo
#12950%89%79-85
Dec 29Away
Northern Iowa logo
#6611%50%48-58
Jan 1Away
Southern Illinois logo
#12326%73%70-75
Jan 4Home
UIC logo
#10642%85%66-59
Jan 7Home
Illinois State logo
#10140%84%77-71
Jan 10Away
Murray State logo
#12927%75%79-92
Jan 13Away
Belmont logo
#6912%50%74-78
Jan 17Home
Northern Iowa logo
#6625%73%54-44
Jan 21Home
Southern Illinois logo
#12349%88%69-63
Jan 28Home
Belmont logo
#6926%73%77-78
Jan 31Away
Indiana State logo
#20648%88%76-72
Feb 3Away
Bradley logo
#12226%73%65-72
Feb 6Home
Evansville logo
#31390%99%70-63
Feb 9Away
Drake logo
#20749%88%81-76
Feb 12Away
Illinois State logo
#10120%66%64-86
Feb 15Home
Indiana State logo
#20671%95%76-75
Feb 18Home
Bradley logo
#12249%88%79-72
Feb 21Away
UIC logo
#10621%67%71-67
Feb 25Home
Drake logo
#20772%95%74-71
Feb 28Away
Evansville logo
#31377%96%79-80
Mar 5Neutral
Indiana State logo
#20661%93%63-62
Mar 6Neutral
Bradley logo
#12236%83%84-90

Schedule Difficulty

Team logo
0%7%10%18%20%27%30%34%40%43%50%52%60%57%70%66%80%75%90%83%100%95%KentuckyNorthwesternNorthern IowaBelmontMarquetteIllinois StateUICNorthern IowaBelmontBradleySouthern IllinoisMurray StateBradleyIllinois StateUICUNCWIndiana StateDrakeBradleySouthern IllinoisMurray StateIndiana StateDifficulty Percentile: Games <95% Probability for 50th Rated TeamWin Probability of 50th Rated TeamHardestEasiest (95% threshold)> 95% Probability Games8-2, 1 left
Record:
17-15
#50 Fcst:
25.7-6.3
Act Win %:
53%
#50 Fcst %:
80%
TWV:
-8.7
Win
Loss
Future Game
Comparing 22 games vs 2,190 total <95% games in dataset

Wins to Seed Map

Valparaiso logo
051015Calumet College Location: Home 12/06 Win Probability: 100%100%H18Bryant Location: Home 11/16 Win Probability: 96%96%H1Eastern Illinois Location: Home 11/04 Win Probability: 92%92%H2Evansville Location: Home 02/06 Win Probability: 90%90%H3Western Michigan Location: Home 11/29 Win Probability: 86%86%H4Nicholls Location: Home 11/12 Win Probability: 80%80%H5Cleveland State Location: Away 11/19 Win Probability: 80%80%A6Drake Location: Home 02/25 Win Probability: 72%72%H7Indiana State Location: Home 02/15 Win Probability: 71%71%H8Indiana State Location: Neutral 03/05 Win Probability: 61%61%N9Southern Illinois Location: Home 01/21 Win Probability: 49%49%H10Bradley Location: Home 02/18 Win Probability: 49%49%H11Drake Location: Away 02/09 Win Probability: 49%49%A12Indiana State Location: Away 01/31 Win Probability: 48%48%A13UIC Location: Home 01/04 Win Probability: 42%42%H14Illinois State Location: Home 01/07 Win Probability: 40%40%H15Northern Iowa Location: Home 01/17 Win Probability: 25%25%H16UIC Location: Away 02/21 Win Probability: 21%21%A1717WinProbLocGameOppWinsNCAASeed- wins to date- future games- JThom proj winsWin Prob = probability team would win vs opponent;Loc = location of the game (H=Home, A=Away, N=Neutral)Game = current wins and count of potential remaining games; Opp = Opponent;NCAA Seed = expected seed by winsProjected seed range for team based on number of victories.Schedule strength factors into range that is identified.Proj Wins is average total wins in regular season and conferencetournament by team based on 1,000 season simulations using compositeratings based on kenpom, barttorvik and evanmiya.

Win Values Over Time

Team logo

NCAA Tournament Seed Projections

Team logo
WinsNCAA Tourney StatusBid CategoryTotal
In Tourney %First Four OutNext Four OutOut of TourneyAuto BidAt Large
17100%100%
Total100%

Rating History

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Projected Wins History

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Projected Standings History

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First Place Probability History

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NCAA Tournament Bid History

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NCAA Tournament Progression History

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