JThom Analytics Logo
South Alabama logo

South Alabama #195

Team Page

19-13
Overall
11-7
Conference
0%
NCAA Bid
-
Avg Seed
Sun Belt logo

Team Schedule

South Alabama logo

Away

8-6
UAB logo
#128
Toledo logo
#132
Troy logo
#134
Arkansas State logo
#146
East Tennessee State logo
#167
Appalachian State logo
#184
Marshall logo
#200
James Madison logo
#202
Jacksonville State logo
#204
Southern Miss logo
#219
Texas State logo
#231
Louisiana-Lafayette logo
#301
UTSA logo
#340
Louisiana-Monroe logo
#356

Neutral

3-1
New Mexico State logo
#187
Georgia Southern logo
#228
Central Michigan logo
#262
Coppin State logo
#360

Home

8-4
Troy logo
#134
North Texas logo
#137
Arkansas State logo
#146
Buffalo logo
#217
Southern Miss logo
#219
Georgia Southern logo
#228
Texas State logo
#231
Coastal Carolina logo
#241
Louisiana-Lafayette logo
#301
Georgia State logo
#315
Alcorn State logo
#346
Louisiana-Monroe logo
#356
Mobile logo
Non D1
Spring Hill logo
Non D1

Schedule Chart

South Alabama logo
DateLocOppRtgWin %#50 Win%Score
Nov 3Away
Toledo logo
#13223%76%76-74
Nov 6Home
Alcorn State logo
#34693%99%76-70
Nov 8Home
Spring Hill logo
Non D1100%100%
Nov 13Neutral
Central Michigan logo
#26269%96%66-64
Nov 15Neutral
Coppin State logo
#36094%99%72-62
Nov 19Away
Jacksonville State logo
#20441%88%71-65
Nov 21Away
UAB logo
#12822%75%72-80
Nov 30Away
UTSA logo
#34082%98%82-58
Dec 2Neutral
New Mexico State logo
#18748%91%77-75
Dec 5Away
East Tennessee State logo
#16731%83%65-91
Dec 14Home
North Texas logo
#13746%90%57-58
Dec 17Away
Louisiana-Monroe logo
#35687%99%96-92
Dec 20Away
Texas State logo
#23149%91%65-67
Dec 29Home
Mobile logo
Non D1100%100%
Dec 31Away
Louisiana-Lafayette logo
#30168%96%63-58
Jan 3Away
Troy logo
#13423%76%49-59
Jan 10Home
Georgia Southern logo
#22872%96%87-71
Jan 15Home
Arkansas State logo
#14649%91%91-87
Jan 17Home
Louisiana-Lafayette logo
#30185%98%56-59
Jan 22Away
James Madison logo
#20240%88%90-83
Jan 29Home
Coastal Carolina logo
#24174%97%53-48
Jan 31Home
Georgia State logo
#31587%99%69-67
Feb 4Away
Appalachian State logo
#18435%85%57-65
Feb 7Home
Buffalo logo
#21768%96%81-69
Feb 12Away
Southern Miss logo
#21944%89%84-78
Feb 14Away
Arkansas State logo
#14626%79%92-88
Feb 16Away
Marshall logo
#20040%87%80-84
Feb 19Home
Texas State logo
#23172%96%82-90
Feb 21Home
Troy logo
#13445%90%65-54
Feb 25Home
Louisiana-Monroe logo
#35695%99%89-54
Feb 27Home
Southern Miss logo
#21968%96%55-68
Mar 6Neutral
Georgia Southern logo
#22861%95%85-94

Schedule Difficulty

Team logo
0%7%10%18%20%27%30%34%40%43%50%52%60%57%70%66%80%75%90%83%100%95%UABToledoTroyArkansas StateEast Tennessee StateAppalachian StateMarshallJames MadisonJacksonville StateSouthern MissTroyNorth TexasArkansas StateTexas StateNew Mexico StateGeorgia SouthernDifficulty Percentile: Games <95% Probability for 50th Rated TeamWin Probability of 50th Rated TeamHardestEasiest (95% threshold)> 95% Probability Games11-3, 2 left
Record:
19-11
#50 Fcst:
27.4-2.6
Act Win %:
63%
#50 Fcst %:
91%
TWV:
-8.4
Win
Loss
Future Game
Comparing 16 games vs 2,190 total <95% games in dataset

Wins to Seed Map

South Alabama logo
05101520Spring Hill Location: Home 11/08 Win Probability: 100%100%H20Mobile Location: Home 12/29 Win Probability: 100%100%H21Louisiana-Monroe Location: Home 02/25 Win Probability: 95%95%H1Coppin State Location: Neutral 11/15 Win Probability: 94%94%N2Alcorn State Location: Home 11/06 Win Probability: 93%93%H3Louisiana-Monroe Location: Away 12/17 Win Probability: 87%87%A4Georgia State Location: Home 01/31 Win Probability: 87%87%H5UTSA Location: Away 11/30 Win Probability: 82%82%A6Coastal Carolina Location: Home 01/29 Win Probability: 74%74%H7Georgia Southern Location: Home 01/10 Win Probability: 72%72%H8Central Michigan Location: Neutral 11/13 Win Probability: 69%69%N9Louisiana-Lafayette Location: Away 12/31 Win Probability: 68%68%A10Buffalo Location: Home 02/07 Win Probability: 68%68%H11Arkansas State Location: Home 01/15 Win Probability: 49%49%H12New Mexico State Location: Neutral 12/02 Win Probability: 48%48%N13Troy Location: Home 02/21 Win Probability: 45%45%H14Southern Miss Location: Away 02/12 Win Probability: 44%44%A15Jacksonville State Location: Away 11/19 Win Probability: 41%41%A16James Madison Location: Away 01/22 Win Probability: 40%40%A17Arkansas State Location: Away 02/14 Win Probability: 26%26%A18Toledo Location: Away 11/03 Win Probability: 23%23%A1919WinProbLocGameOppWinsNCAASeed- wins to date- future games- JThom proj winsWin Prob = probability team would win vs opponent;Loc = location of the game (H=Home, A=Away, N=Neutral)Game = current wins and count of potential remaining games; Opp = Opponent;NCAA Seed = expected seed by winsProjected seed range for team based on number of victories.Schedule strength factors into range that is identified.Proj Wins is average total wins in regular season and conferencetournament by team based on 1,000 season simulations using compositeratings based on kenpom, barttorvik and evanmiya.

Win Values Over Time

Team logo

NCAA Tournament Seed Projections

Team logo
WinsNCAA Tourney StatusBid CategoryTotal
In Tourney %First Four OutNext Four OutOut of TourneyAuto BidAt Large
19100%100%
Total100%

Rating History

Loading rank history...

Projected Wins History

Loading historical data...

Projected Standings History

Loading historical data...

First Place Probability History

Loading historical data...

NCAA Tournament Bid History

Loading NCAA bid history...

NCAA Tournament Progression History

Loading NCAA progression history...