JThom Analytics Logo
Arkansas State logo

Arkansas State #146

Team Page

18-14
Overall
11-7
Conference
0%
NCAA Bid
-
Avg Seed
Sun Belt logo

Team Schedule

Arkansas State logo

Away

9-7
Saint Mary's logo
#24
SMU logo
#43
Stephen F. Austin logo
#92
Troy logo
#134
South Alabama logo
#195
Missouri State logo
#199
Southern Miss logo
#219
Rice logo
#222
Ohio logo
#223
Georgia Southern logo
#228
Texas State logo
#231
Coastal Carolina logo
#241
Louisiana-Lafayette logo
#301
Little Rock logo
#309
Georgia State logo
#315
Louisiana-Monroe logo
#356

Neutral

0-1
Georgia Southern logo
#228

Home

9-4
North Dakota State logo
#115
Troy logo
#134
Bowling Green logo
#154
UT Arlington logo
#175
South Alabama logo
#195
Marshall logo
#200
James Madison logo
#202
Jacksonville State logo
#204
Southern Miss logo
#219
Texas State logo
#231
Old Dominion logo
#234
Louisiana-Lafayette logo
#301
Louisiana-Monroe logo
#356
Arkansas Tech logo
Non D1
Christian Brothers logo
Non D1

Schedule Chart

Arkansas State logo
DateLocOppRtgWin %#50 Win%Score
Nov 3Away
Ohio logo
#22359%90%89-85
Nov 7Away
Stephen F. Austin logo
#9220%61%65-90
Nov 11Away
Missouri State logo
#19953%87%86-85
Nov 15Home
Christian Brothers logo
Non D1100%100%
Nov 19Away
Saint Mary's logo
#245%23%72-85
Nov 21Away
SMU logo
#437%33%69-100
Nov 24Home
Jacksonville State logo
#20476%95%74-63
Nov 28Home
North Dakota State logo
#11550%86%85-80
Dec 2Home
UT Arlington logo
#17569%93%83-63
Dec 6Away
Little Rock logo
#30980%96%90-78
Dec 13Away
Rice logo
#22259%90%76-77
Dec 17Away
Texas State logo
#23162%91%89-70
Dec 20Away
Southern Miss logo
#21958%89%93-86
Dec 30Home
Arkansas Tech logo
Non D1100%100%
Jan 3Home
James Madison logo
#20275%95%74-78
Jan 7Home
Troy logo
#13458%90%86-74
Jan 10Home
Texas State logo
#23181%96%83-82
Jan 15Away
South Alabama logo
#19551%87%87-91
Jan 17Away
Troy logo
#13434%76%74-99
Jan 22Away
Georgia Southern logo
#22862%91%85-68
Jan 24Away
Georgia State logo
#31581%96%81-82
Jan 28Home
Old Dominion logo
#23482%97%71-75
Jan 31Home
Marshall logo
#20075%95%61-70
Feb 4Away
Coastal Carolina logo
#24165%92%70-66
Feb 7Home
Bowling Green logo
#15464%92%91-54
Feb 11Home
Louisiana-Monroe logo
#35697%99%103-70
Feb 14Home
South Alabama logo
#19574%95%88-92
Feb 19Away
Louisiana-Lafayette logo
#30179%96%79-62
Feb 21Away
Louisiana-Monroe logo
#35692%99%102-94
Feb 24Home
Southern Miss logo
#21978%96%89-84
Feb 27Home
Louisiana-Lafayette logo
#30191%98%81-58
Mar 5Neutral
Georgia Southern logo
#22873%95%77-80

Schedule Difficulty

Team logo
0%7%10%18%20%27%30%34%40%43%50%52%60%57%70%66%80%75%90%83%100%95%Saint Mary'sSMUStephen F. AustinTroyNorth Dakota StateSouth AlabamaMissouri StateSouthern MissTroyRiceOhioGeorgia SouthernTexas StateBowling GreenCoastal CarolinaUT ArlingtonSouth AlabamaGeorgia SouthernMarshallDifficulty Percentile: Games <95% Probability for 50th Rated TeamWin Probability of 50th Rated TeamHardestEasiest (95% threshold)> 95% Probability Games8-3, 2 left
Record:
18-12
#50 Fcst:
26.2-3.8
Act Win %:
60%
#50 Fcst %:
87%
TWV:
-8.2
Win
Loss
Future Game
Comparing 19 games vs 2,190 total <95% games in dataset

Wins to Seed Map

Arkansas State logo
05101520Christian Brothers Location: Home 11/15 Win Probability: 100%100%H19Arkansas Tech Location: Home 12/30 Win Probability: 100%100%H20Louisiana-Monroe Location: Home 02/11 Win Probability: 97%97%H1Louisiana-Monroe Location: Away 02/21 Win Probability: 92%92%A2Louisiana-Lafayette Location: Home 02/27 Win Probability: 91%91%H3Texas State Location: Home 01/10 Win Probability: 81%81%H4Little Rock Location: Away 12/06 Win Probability: 80%80%A5Louisiana-Lafayette Location: Away 02/19 Win Probability: 79%79%A6Southern Miss Location: Home 02/24 Win Probability: 78%78%H7Jacksonville State Location: Home 11/24 Win Probability: 76%76%H8UT Arlington Location: Home 12/02 Win Probability: 69%69%H9Coastal Carolina Location: Away 02/04 Win Probability: 65%65%A10Bowling Green Location: Home 02/07 Win Probability: 64%64%H11Texas State Location: Away 12/17 Win Probability: 62%62%A12Georgia Southern Location: Away 01/22 Win Probability: 62%62%A13Ohio Location: Away 11/03 Win Probability: 59%59%A14Troy Location: Home 01/07 Win Probability: 58%58%H15Southern Miss Location: Away 12/20 Win Probability: 58%58%A16Missouri State Location: Away 11/11 Win Probability: 53%53%A17North Dakota State Location: Home 11/28 Win Probability: 50%50%H1818WinProbLocGameOppWinsNCAASeed- wins to date- future games- JThom proj winsWin Prob = probability team would win vs opponent;Loc = location of the game (H=Home, A=Away, N=Neutral)Game = current wins and count of potential remaining games; Opp = Opponent;NCAA Seed = expected seed by winsProjected seed range for team based on number of victories.Schedule strength factors into range that is identified.Proj Wins is average total wins in regular season and conferencetournament by team based on 1,000 season simulations using compositeratings based on kenpom, barttorvik and evanmiya.

Win Values Over Time

Team logo

NCAA Tournament Seed Projections

Team logo
WinsNCAA Tourney StatusBid CategoryTotal
In Tourney %First Four OutNext Four OutOut of TourneyAuto BidAt Large
18100%100%
Total100%

Rating History

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Projected Wins History

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Projected Standings History

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First Place Probability History

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NCAA Tournament Bid History

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NCAA Tournament Progression History

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