JThom Analytics Logo
Montana State logo

Montana State #133

Team Page

15-17
Overall
12-6
Conference
0%
NCAA Bid
-
Avg Seed
Big Sky logo

Team Schedule

Montana State logo

Away

6-11
Utah State logo
#30
Boise State logo
#57
Stanford logo
#62
Colorado logo
#75
Northern Colorado logo
#138
Idaho logo
#145
Portland State logo
#153
Eastern Washington logo
#164
Oregon State logo
#170
Montana logo
#185
Weber State logo
#209
Cal Poly logo
#220
Long Beach State logo
#251
Idaho State logo
#268
Sacramento State logo
#274
Oral Roberts logo
#311
Northern Arizona logo
#325

Neutral

0-1
Idaho logo
#145
Nobel logo
Non D1

Home

9-2
St. Thomas (MN) logo
#108
Northern Colorado logo
#138
Idaho logo
#145
Portland State logo
#153
Eastern Washington logo
#164
Montana logo
#185
Weber State logo
#209
Denver logo
#245
Idaho State logo
#268
Sacramento State logo
#274
Northern Arizona logo
#325
Northwest logo
Non D1
Northwest Indian logo
Non D1

Schedule Chart

Montana State logo
DateLocOppRtgWin %#50 Win%Score
Nov 3Away
Colorado logo
#7518%53%78-84
Nov 5Home
Northwest Indian logo
Non D1100%100%
Nov 9Home
Denver logo
#24586%97%73-75
Nov 12Away
Stanford logo
#6215%47%68-77
Nov 15Away
Boise State logo
#5714%45%58-62
Nov 20Neutral
Nobel logo
Non D1100%100%
Nov 21Away
Long Beach State logo
#25171%92%78-72
Nov 29Away
Utah State logo
#307%28%81-84
Dec 3Home
St. Thomas (MN) logo
#10852%85%82-74
Dec 6Away
Oral Roberts logo
#31183%96%68-72
Dec 13Away
Oregon State logo
#17049%83%57-67
Dec 16Away
Cal Poly logo
#22063%90%83-80
Dec 22Home
Northwest logo
Non D1100%100%
Jan 1Home
Northern Colorado logo
#13865%90%89-75
Jan 3Home
Northern Arizona logo
#32594%99%77-68
Jan 8Away
Eastern Washington logo
#16448%83%68-64
Jan 10Away
Idaho logo
#14542%79%89-92
Jan 17Home
Montana logo
#18575%94%76-67
Jan 19Away
Northern Colorado logo
#13841%78%73-68
Jan 22Home
Idaho State logo
#26889%98%74-62
Jan 24Home
Weber State logo
#20980%95%91-88
Jan 29Away
Sacramento State logo
#27476%94%80-83
Jan 31Away
Portland State logo
#15345%80%54-63
Feb 5Home
Idaho logo
#14566%91%73-66
Feb 7Home
Eastern Washington logo
#16471%93%71-72
Feb 14Away
Montana logo
#18553%85%82-71
Feb 19Away
Weber State logo
#20960%88%79-82
Feb 21Away
Idaho State logo
#26874%94%76-91
Feb 26Home
Portland State logo
#15368%92%84-69
Feb 28Home
Sacramento State logo
#27489%98%82-61
Mar 2Away
Northern Arizona logo
#32587%97%76-65
Mar 8Neutral
Idaho logo
#14555%87%74-78

Schedule Difficulty

Team logo
0%7%10%18%20%27%30%34%40%43%50%52%60%57%70%66%80%75%90%83%100%95%Utah StateBoise StateStanfordColoradoNorthern ColoradoIdahoPortland StateEastern WashingtonOregon StateSt. Thomas (MN)MontanaIdahoWeber StateCal PolyNorthern ColoradoIdahoPortland StateLong Beach StateEastern WashingtonIdaho StateMontanaSacramento StateDifficulty Percentile: Games <95% Probability for 50th Rated TeamWin Probability of 50th Rated TeamHardestEasiest (95% threshold)> 95% Probability Games5-2, 3 left
Record:
15-14
#50 Fcst:
24.3-4.7
Act Win %:
52%
#50 Fcst %:
84%
TWV:
-9.3
Win
Loss
Future Game
Comparing 22 games vs 2,190 total <95% games in dataset

Wins to Seed Map

Montana State logo
051015Nobel Location: Neutral 11/20 Win Probability: 100%100%N16Northwest Indian Location: Home 11/05 Win Probability: 100%100%H17Northwest Location: Home 12/22 Win Probability: 100%100%H18Northern Arizona Location: Home 01/03 Win Probability: 94%94%H1Sacramento State Location: Home 02/28 Win Probability: 89%89%H2Idaho State Location: Home 01/22 Win Probability: 89%89%H3Northern Arizona Location: Away 03/02 Win Probability: 87%87%A4Weber State Location: Home 01/24 Win Probability: 80%80%H5Montana Location: Home 01/17 Win Probability: 75%75%H6Long Beach State Location: Away 11/21 Win Probability: 71%71%A7Portland State Location: Home 02/26 Win Probability: 68%68%H8Idaho Location: Home 02/05 Win Probability: 66%66%H9Northern Colorado Location: Home 01/01 Win Probability: 65%65%H10Cal Poly Location: Away 12/16 Win Probability: 63%63%A11Montana Location: Away 02/14 Win Probability: 53%53%A12St. Thomas (MN) Location: Home 12/03 Win Probability: 52%52%H13Eastern Washington Location: Away 01/08 Win Probability: 48%48%A14Northern Colorado Location: Away 01/19 Win Probability: 41%41%A1515WinProbLocGameOppWinsNCAASeed- wins to date- future games- JThom proj winsWin Prob = probability team would win vs opponent;Loc = location of the game (H=Home, A=Away, N=Neutral)Game = current wins and count of potential remaining games; Opp = Opponent;NCAA Seed = expected seed by winsProjected seed range for team based on number of victories.Schedule strength factors into range that is identified.Proj Wins is average total wins in regular season and conferencetournament by team based on 1,000 season simulations using compositeratings based on kenpom, barttorvik and evanmiya.

Win Values Over Time

Team logo

NCAA Tournament Seed Projections

Team logo
WinsNCAA Tourney StatusBid CategoryTotal
In Tourney %First Four OutNext Four OutOut of TourneyAuto BidAt Large
15100%100%
Total100%

Rating History

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Projected Wins History

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Projected Standings History

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First Place Probability History

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NCAA Tournament Bid History

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NCAA Tournament Progression History

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