JThom Analytics Logo
Texas State logo

Texas State #231

Team Page

17-15
Overall
11-7
Conference
0%
NCAA Bid
-
Avg Seed
Sun Belt logo

Team Schedule

Texas State logo

Away

3-9
Troy logo
#134
Arkansas State logo
#146
Bowling Green logo
#154
South Alabama logo
#195
Tulane logo
#201
James Madison logo
#202
Southern Miss logo
#219
Rice logo
#222
Georgia Southern logo
#228
Coastal Carolina logo
#241
Louisiana-Lafayette logo
#301
Louisiana-Monroe logo
#356

Neutral

0-3
Seattle logo
#116
Southern Miss logo
#219
Lehigh logo
#282

Home

14-1
Troy logo
#134
Arkansas State logo
#146
Appalachian State logo
#184
South Alabama logo
#195
Marshall logo
#200
Southern Miss logo
#219
Old Dominion logo
#234
Abilene Christian logo
#261
Southern logo
#265
Western Michigan logo
#280
Louisiana-Lafayette logo
#301
Texas Southern logo
#303
Little Rock logo
#309
UTSA logo
#340
Louisiana-Monroe logo
#356
Texas A&M-San Antonio logo
Non D1
Texas Lutheran logo
Non D1

Schedule Chart

Texas State logo
DateLocOppRtgWin %#50 Win%Score
Nov 3Away
Bowling Green logo
#15420%80%48-83
Nov 5Home
Texas A&M-San Antonio logo
Non D1100%100%
Nov 8Away
Tulane logo
#20130%87%71-79
Nov 12Home
UTSA logo
#34088%99%80-69
Nov 15Home
Texas Southern logo
#30379%98%77-67
Nov 18Home
Abilene Christian logo
#26169%97%63-49
Nov 21Home
Little Rock logo
#30979%98%65-56
Nov 24Home
Texas Lutheran logo
Non D1100%100%
Nov 28Neutral
Seattle logo
#11618%80%52-66
Nov 29Neutral
Lehigh logo
#28264%97%74-78
Dec 3Away
Rice logo
#22235%90%72-77
Dec 10Home
Southern logo
#26570%98%86-83
Dec 17Home
Arkansas State logo
#14638%91%70-89
Dec 20Home
South Alabama logo
#19551%95%67-65
Dec 31Away
Troy logo
#13416%76%80-100
Jan 3Away
Louisiana-Monroe logo
#35681%99%84-79
Jan 8Away
Southern Miss logo
#21934%89%70-80
Jan 10Away
Arkansas State logo
#14619%79%82-83
Jan 14Home
Louisiana-Lafayette logo
#30178%98%59-54
Jan 17Home
Southern Miss logo
#21957%96%74-67
Jan 22Away
Coastal Carolina logo
#24140%92%70-72
Jan 24Away
James Madison logo
#20230%88%57-82
Jan 28Home
Marshall logo
#20052%95%72-68
Jan 31Home
Old Dominion logo
#23463%97%81-64
Feb 4Away
Georgia Southern logo
#22838%91%77-71
Feb 7Home
Western Michigan logo
#28073%98%77-61
Feb 11Home
Troy logo
#13434%90%74-62
Feb 14Home
Louisiana-Monroe logo
#35692%99%95-84
Feb 19Away
South Alabama logo
#19528%87%90-82
Feb 21Away
Louisiana-Lafayette logo
#30158%96%54-67
Feb 27Home
Appalachian State logo
#18448%94%60-57
Mar 6Neutral
Southern Miss logo
#21945%94%77-81

Schedule Difficulty

Team logo
0%7%10%18%20%27%30%34%40%43%50%52%60%57%70%66%80%75%90%83%100%95%TroyArkansas StateSeattleBowling GreenSouth AlabamaTulaneJames MadisonSouthern MissTroyRiceGeorgia SouthernArkansas StateCoastal CarolinaSouthern MissAppalachian StateSouth AlabamaMarshallDifficulty Percentile: Games <95% Probability for 50th Rated TeamWin Probability of 50th Rated TeamHardestEasiest (95% threshold)> 95% Probability Games11-2, 2 left
Record:
17-13
#50 Fcst:
27.7-2.3
Act Win %:
57%
#50 Fcst %:
92%
TWV:
-10.7
Win
Loss
Future Game
Comparing 17 games vs 2,190 total <95% games in dataset

Wins to Seed Map

Texas State logo
051015Texas A&M-San Antonio Location: Home 11/05 Win Probability: 100%100%H18Texas Lutheran Location: Home 11/24 Win Probability: 100%100%H19Louisiana-Monroe Location: Home 02/14 Win Probability: 92%92%H1UTSA Location: Home 11/12 Win Probability: 88%88%H2Louisiana-Monroe Location: Away 01/03 Win Probability: 81%81%A3Little Rock Location: Home 11/21 Win Probability: 79%79%H4Texas Southern Location: Home 11/15 Win Probability: 79%79%H5Louisiana-Lafayette Location: Home 01/14 Win Probability: 78%78%H6Western Michigan Location: Home 02/07 Win Probability: 73%73%H7Southern Location: Home 12/10 Win Probability: 70%70%H8Abilene Christian Location: Home 11/18 Win Probability: 69%69%H9Old Dominion Location: Home 01/31 Win Probability: 63%63%H10Southern Miss Location: Home 01/17 Win Probability: 57%57%H11Marshall Location: Home 01/28 Win Probability: 52%52%H12South Alabama Location: Home 12/20 Win Probability: 51%51%H13Appalachian State Location: Home 02/27 Win Probability: 48%48%H14Georgia Southern Location: Away 02/04 Win Probability: 38%38%A15Troy Location: Home 02/11 Win Probability: 34%34%H16South Alabama Location: Away 02/19 Win Probability: 28%28%A1717WinProbLocGameOppWinsNCAASeed- wins to date- future games- JThom proj winsWin Prob = probability team would win vs opponent;Loc = location of the game (H=Home, A=Away, N=Neutral)Game = current wins and count of potential remaining games; Opp = Opponent;NCAA Seed = expected seed by winsProjected seed range for team based on number of victories.Schedule strength factors into range that is identified.Proj Wins is average total wins in regular season and conferencetournament by team based on 1,000 season simulations using compositeratings based on kenpom, barttorvik and evanmiya.

Win Values Over Time

Team logo

NCAA Tournament Seed Projections

Team logo
WinsNCAA Tourney StatusBid CategoryTotal
In Tourney %First Four OutNext Four OutOut of TourneyAuto BidAt Large
17100%100%
Total100%

Rating History

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Projected Wins History

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Projected Standings History

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First Place Probability History

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NCAA Tournament Bid History

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NCAA Tournament Progression History

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