JThom Analytics Logo
Dayton logo

Dayton #73

Team Page

23-11
Overall
12-6
Conference
0%
NCAA Bid
-
Avg Seed
Atlantic 10 logo

Team Schedule

Dayton logo

Away

6-5
Cincinnati logo
#33
Saint Louis logo
#38
VCU logo
#46
Marquette logo
#79
George Washington logo
#81
George Mason logo
#102
Saint Joseph's logo
#107
Duquesne logo
#125
Richmond logo
#160
La Salle logo
#233
Loyola Chicago logo
#276

Neutral

3-3
Virginia logo
#14
BYU logo
#29
Saint Louis logo
#38
VCU logo
#46
Georgetown logo
#85
St. Bonaventure logo
#142

Home

14-3
Saint Louis logo
#38
VCU logo
#46
Florida State logo
#58
George Washington logo
#81
Davidson logo
#111
Liberty logo
#119
Duquesne logo
#125
St. Bonaventure logo
#142
Rhode Island logo
#144
East Tennessee State logo
#167
Fordham logo
#168
UMBC logo
#180
Bethune-Cookman logo
#229
Loyola Chicago logo
#276
North Florida logo
#334
Canisius logo
#342
North Carolina Central logo
#348

Schedule Chart

Dayton logo
DateLocOppRtgWin %#50 Win%Score
Nov 3Home
Canisius logo
#34299%99%88-48
Nov 8Home
UMBC logo
#18089%94%77-71
Nov 11Away
Cincinnati logo
#3319%30%62-74
Nov 15Home
Bethune-Cookman logo
#22994%96%91-82
Nov 19Away
Marquette logo
#7940%53%77-71
Nov 22Home
North Carolina Central logo
#34899%99%74-55
Nov 27Neutral
Georgetown logo
#8555%69%84-79
Nov 28Neutral
BYU logo
#2925%38%79-83
Dec 2Home
East Tennessee State logo
#16788%93%88-71
Dec 6Neutral
Virginia logo
#1415%24%73-86
Dec 13Home
North Florida logo
#33498%99%84-61
Dec 16Home
Florida State logo
#5855%68%97-69
Dec 20Home
Liberty logo
#11980%87%61-64
Dec 31Home
Fordham logo
#16888%93%63-56
Jan 3Away
Loyola Chicago logo
#27691%94%70-68
Jan 6Home
George Washington logo
#8164%76%79-72
Jan 13Away
Duquesne logo
#12562%74%71-65
Jan 16Home
Loyola Chicago logo
#27696%98%78-51
Jan 21Away
La Salle logo
#23386%91%64-67
Jan 24Away
Saint Joseph's logo
#10755%68%74-81
Jan 27Home
Rhode Island logo
#14485%91%76-81
Jan 30Away
Saint Louis logo
#3821%31%71-102
Feb 3Home
St. Bonaventure logo
#14285%91%72-70
Feb 6Away
VCU logo
#4624%36%73-99
Feb 15Home
Davidson logo
#11177%86%70-59
Feb 18Away
George Mason logo
#10253%66%82-67
Feb 21Home
Duquesne logo
#12581%88%78-66
Feb 24Home
Saint Louis logo
#3841%55%77-62
Feb 27Away
George Washington logo
#8140%54%68-66
Mar 3Away
Richmond logo
#16071%81%65-60
Mar 6Home
VCU logo
#4646%60%62-68
Mar 13Neutral
St. Bonaventure logo
#14278%86%68-63
Mar 14Neutral
Saint Louis logo
#3829%43%70-69
Mar 15Neutral
VCU logo
#4634%47%62-70

Schedule Difficulty

Team logo
0%7%10%18%20%27%30%34%40%43%50%52%60%57%70%66%80%75%90%83%100%95%VirginiaCincinnatiSaint LouisVCUBYUSaint LouisVCUMarquetteGeorge WashingtonSaint LouisVCUGeorge MasonSaint Joseph'sFlorida StateGeorgetownDuquesneGeorge WashingtonRichmondDavidsonSt. BonaventureLibertyDuquesneSt. BonaventureRhode IslandLa SalleEast Tennessee StateFordhamUMBCLoyola ChicagoDifficulty Percentile: Games <95% Probability for 50th Rated TeamWin Probability of 50th Rated TeamHardestEasiest (95% threshold)> 95% Probability Games5-0, 0 left
Record:
23-11
#50 Fcst:
24.6-9.4
Act Win %:
68%
#50 Fcst %:
72%
TWV:
-1.6
Win
Loss
Future Game
Comparing 29 games vs 2,190 total <95% games in dataset

Wins to Seed Map

Dayton logo
05101520North Carolina Central Location: Home 11/22 Win Probability: 99%99%H1Canisius Location: Home 11/03 Win Probability: 99%99%H2North Florida Location: Home 12/13 Win Probability: 98%98%H3Loyola Chicago Location: Home 01/16 Win Probability: 96%96%H4Bethune-Cookman Location: Home 11/15 Win Probability: 94%94%H5Loyola Chicago Location: Away 01/03 Win Probability: 91%91%A6UMBC Location: Home 11/08 Win Probability: 89%89%H7Fordham Location: Home 12/31 Win Probability: 88%88%H8East Tennessee State Location: Home 12/02 Win Probability: 88%88%H9St. Bonaventure Location: Home 02/03 Win Probability: 85%85%H10Duquesne Location: Home 02/21 Win Probability: 81%81%H11St. Bonaventure Location: Neutral 03/13 Win Probability: 78%78%N12Davidson Location: Home 02/15 Win Probability: 77%77%H13Richmond Location: Away 03/03 Win Probability: 71%71%A14George Washington Location: Home 01/06 Win Probability: 64%64%H15Duquesne Location: Away 01/13 Win Probability: 62%62%A16Florida State Location: Home 12/16 Win Probability: 55%55%H17Georgetown Location: Neutral 11/27 Win Probability: 55%55%N18George Mason Location: Away 02/18 Win Probability: 53%53%A19Saint Louis Location: Home 02/24 Win Probability: 41%41%H20George Washington Location: Away 02/27 Win Probability: 40%40%A21Marquette Location: Away 11/19 Win Probability: 40%40%A22Saint Louis Location: Neutral 03/14 Win Probability: 29%29%N2323WinProbLocGameOppWinsNCAASeed- wins to date- future games- JThom proj winsWin Prob = probability team would win vs opponent;Loc = location of the game (H=Home, A=Away, N=Neutral)Game = current wins and count of potential remaining games; Opp = Opponent;NCAA Seed = expected seed by winsProjected seed range for team based on number of victories.Schedule strength factors into range that is identified.Proj Wins is average total wins in regular season and conferencetournament by team based on 1,000 season simulations using compositeratings based on kenpom, barttorvik and evanmiya.

Win Values Over Time

Team logo

NCAA Tournament Seed Projections

Team logo
WinsNCAA Tourney StatusBid CategoryTotal
In Tourney %First Four OutNext Four OutOut of TourneyAuto BidAt Large
23100%100%
Total100%

Rating History

Projected Wins History

Projected Standings History

First Place Probability History

NCAA Tournament Bid History

NCAA Tournament Progression History