JThom Analytics Logo
Central Arkansas logo

Central Arkansas #156

Team Page

20-14
Overall
15-3
Conference
0%
NCAA Bid
-
Avg Seed
Atlantic Sun logo

Team Schedule

Central Arkansas logo

Away

6-10
Vanderbilt logo
#12
Arkansas logo
#16
North Carolina logo
#35
SMU logo
#43
North Texas logo
#137
Austin Peay logo
#166
East Tennessee State logo
#167
Queens (NC) logo
#191
Lipscomb logo
#218
Florida Gulf Coast logo
#239
Bellarmine logo
#284
Eastern Kentucky logo
#294
West Georgia logo
#297
East Texas A&M logo
#302
Stetson logo
#310
North Alabama logo
#341

Neutral

2-1
Queens (NC) logo
#191
Florida Gulf Coast logo
#239
Bellarmine logo
#284

Home

12-1
Eastern Washington logo
#164
Queens (NC) logo
#191
Samford logo
#211
Florida Gulf Coast logo
#239
Bellarmine logo
#284
Jacksonville logo
#289
Eastern Kentucky logo
#294
West Georgia logo
#297
Little Rock logo
#309
Stetson logo
#310
Eastern Illinois logo
#326
North Florida logo
#334
North Alabama logo
#341
Champion Christian College logo
Non D1
Kansas Christian logo
Non D1

Schedule Chart

Central Arkansas logo
DateLocOppRtgWin %#50 Win%Score
Nov 3Away
North Carolina logo
#356%30%54-94
Nov 8Home
Champion Christian College logo
Non D1100%100%
Nov 11Away
Arkansas logo
#163%18%56-93
Nov 16Home
Samford logo
#21175%95%77-84
Nov 20Away
North Texas logo
#13733%77%56-74
Nov 23Home
Eastern Washington logo
#16465%93%92-65
Nov 25Home
Eastern Illinois logo
#32693%99%81-60
Nov 29Away
East Tennessee State logo
#16741%83%57-80
Dec 3Home
Little Rock logo
#30990%98%85-47
Dec 7Away
East Texas A&M logo
#30277%96%68-75
Dec 13Away
Vanderbilt logo
#123%15%72-83
Dec 17Home
Kansas Christian logo
Non D1100%100%
Dec 21Away
SMU logo
#437%33%82-99
Jan 1Home
Florida Gulf Coast logo
#23981%97%85-83
Jan 3Home
Stetson logo
#31091%99%93-73
Jan 8Away
Bellarmine logo
#28473%95%78-84
Jan 10Away
Eastern Kentucky logo
#29475%95%75-79
Jan 15Home
Jacksonville logo
#28988%98%62-60
Jan 17Home
North Florida logo
#33494%99%98-69
Jan 22Away
West Georgia logo
#29776%96%86-65
Jan 28Away
Queens (NC) logo
#19147%86%100-90
Jan 31Home
Eastern Kentucky logo
#29489%98%90-81
Feb 4Home
North Alabama logo
#34195%99%81-60
Feb 7Away
Lipscomb logo
#21855%89%86-78
Feb 9Away
North Alabama logo
#34187%98%72-65
Feb 11Home
Bellarmine logo
#28488%98%84-76
Feb 14Home
West Georgia logo
#29789%98%79-62
Feb 19Away
Stetson logo
#31078%96%88-76
Feb 21Away
Florida Gulf Coast logo
#23962%92%71-75
Feb 25Away
Austin Peay logo
#16641%83%93-88
Feb 28Home
Queens (NC) logo
#19170%94%84-79
Mar 6Neutral
Bellarmine logo
#28482%97%86-73
Mar 7Neutral
Florida Gulf Coast logo
#23974%95%73-63
Mar 8Neutral
Queens (NC) logo
#19160%92%93-98

Schedule Difficulty

Team logo
0%7%10%18%20%27%30%34%40%43%50%52%60%57%70%66%80%75%90%83%100%95%VanderbiltArkansasNorth CarolinaSMUNorth TexasAustin PeayEast Tennessee StateQueens (NC)LipscombQueens (NC)Florida Gulf CoastEastern WashingtonQueens (NC)BellarmineDifficulty Percentile: Games <95% Probability for 50th Rated TeamWin Probability of 50th Rated TeamHardestEasiest (95% threshold)> 95% Probability Games15-3, 2 left
Record:
20-12
#50 Fcst:
27.3-4.7
Act Win %:
63%
#50 Fcst %:
85%
TWV:
-7.3
Win
Loss
Future Game
Comparing 14 games vs 2,190 total <95% games in dataset

Wins to Seed Map

Central Arkansas logo
05101520Champion Christian College Location: Home 11/08 Win Probability: 100%100%H21Kansas Christian Location: Home 12/17 Win Probability: 100%100%H22North Alabama Location: Home 02/04 Win Probability: 95%95%H1North Florida Location: Home 01/17 Win Probability: 94%94%H2Eastern Illinois Location: Home 11/25 Win Probability: 93%93%H3Stetson Location: Home 01/03 Win Probability: 91%91%H4Little Rock Location: Home 12/03 Win Probability: 90%90%H5West Georgia Location: Home 02/14 Win Probability: 89%89%H6Eastern Kentucky Location: Home 01/31 Win Probability: 89%89%H7Jacksonville Location: Home 01/15 Win Probability: 88%88%H8Bellarmine Location: Home 02/11 Win Probability: 88%88%H9North Alabama Location: Away 02/09 Win Probability: 87%87%A10Bellarmine Location: Neutral 03/06 Win Probability: 82%82%N11Florida Gulf Coast Location: Home 01/01 Win Probability: 81%81%H12Stetson Location: Away 02/19 Win Probability: 78%78%A13West Georgia Location: Away 01/22 Win Probability: 76%76%A14Florida Gulf Coast Location: Neutral 03/07 Win Probability: 74%74%N15Queens (NC) Location: Home 02/28 Win Probability: 70%70%H16Eastern Washington Location: Home 11/23 Win Probability: 65%65%H17Lipscomb Location: Away 02/07 Win Probability: 55%55%A18Queens (NC) Location: Away 01/28 Win Probability: 47%47%A19Austin Peay Location: Away 02/25 Win Probability: 41%41%A2020WinProbLocGameOppWinsNCAASeed- wins to date- future games- JThom proj winsWin Prob = probability team would win vs opponent;Loc = location of the game (H=Home, A=Away, N=Neutral)Game = current wins and count of potential remaining games; Opp = Opponent;NCAA Seed = expected seed by winsProjected seed range for team based on number of victories.Schedule strength factors into range that is identified.Proj Wins is average total wins in regular season and conferencetournament by team based on 1,000 season simulations using compositeratings based on kenpom, barttorvik and evanmiya.

Win Values Over Time

Team logo

NCAA Tournament Seed Projections

Team logo
WinsNCAA Tourney StatusBid CategoryTotal
In Tourney %First Four OutNext Four OutOut of TourneyAuto BidAt Large
20100%100%
Total100%

Rating History

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Projected Wins History

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Projected Standings History

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First Place Probability History

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NCAA Tournament Bid History

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NCAA Tournament Progression History

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