JThom Analytics Logo
UMBC logo

UMBC #180

Team Page

22-10
Overall
14-2
Conference
100%
NCAA Bid
13.9
Avg Seed
America East logo

Team Schedule

UMBC logo

Away

9-6
South Florida logo
#49
Dayton logo
#73
George Washington logo
#81
Georgetown logo
#85
Vermont logo
#236
Massachusetts-Lowell logo
#318
Albany logo
#319
Bucknell logo
#327
NJIT logo
#328
Maine logo
#347
New Hampshire logo
#349
Morgan State logo
#351
Bryant logo
#355
Binghamton logo
#358
Coppin State logo
#360

Neutral

0-0
None

Home

13-2
Buffalo logo
#217
Vermont logo
#236
Vermont logo
#236
Wagner logo
#312
Massachusetts-Lowell logo
#318
Massachusetts-Lowell logo
#318
Albany logo
#319
NJIT logo
#328
Army logo
#338
Maine logo
#347
New Hampshire logo
#349
New Hampshire logo
#349
Bryant logo
#355
Binghamton logo
#358
Delaware State logo
#361
Notre Dame of Maryland logo
Non D1
Penn State-York logo
Non D1

Schedule Chart

UMBC logo
DateLocOppRtgWin %#50 Win%Score
Nov 4Home
Penn State-York logo
Non D1100%100%
Nov 8Away
Dayton logo
#7311%52%71-77
Nov 11Away
Morgan State logo
#35187%98%81-79
Nov 16Home
Wagner logo
#31288%99%71-70
Nov 19Away
George Washington logo
#8112%54%52-89
Nov 24Home
Notre Dame of Maryland logo
Non D1100%100%
Nov 29Home
Delaware State logo
#36197%100%71-57
Dec 3Away
Georgetown logo
#8513%57%81-90
Dec 6Away
Bucknell logo
#32780%97%73-66
Dec 9Home
Buffalo logo
#21771%96%79-83
Dec 12Home
Army logo
#33893%99%60-63
Dec 21Away
South Florida logo
#496%38%69-94
Dec 29Away
Coppin State logo
#36092%99%93-59
Jan 8Home
Maine logo
#34794%99%69-62
Jan 10Home
New Hampshire logo
#34995%99%75-74
Jan 15Away
Bryant logo
#35589%99%74-79
Jan 19Away
Binghamton logo
#35890%99%78-60
Jan 22Home
NJIT logo
#32891%99%87-74
Jan 24Home
Massachusetts-Lowell logo
#31889%99%79-56
Jan 29Away
Vermont logo
#23655%92%55-64
Jan 31Away
Albany logo
#31976%97%68-65
Feb 5Home
Binghamton logo
#35896%100%79-62
Feb 12Away
Maine logo
#34786%98%78-62
Feb 14Away
New Hampshire logo
#34987%98%85-63
Feb 19Home
Vermont logo
#23677%97%75-62
Feb 21Home
Albany logo
#31990%99%66-62
Feb 26Home
Bryant logo
#35595%99%70-58
Feb 28Away
Massachusetts-Lowell logo
#31876%97%84-60
Mar 3Away
NJIT logo
#32880%97%91-52
Mar 7Home
New Hampshire logo
#34995%99%84-69
Mar 10Home
Massachusetts-Lowell logo
#31889%99%91-69
Mar 14Home
Vermont logo
#23677%97%74-59

Schedule Difficulty

Team logo
0%7%10%18%20%27%30%34%40%43%50%52%60%57%70%66%80%75%90%83%100%95%South FloridaDaytonGeorge WashingtonGeorgetownVermontDifficulty Percentile: Games <95% Probability for 50th Rated TeamWin Probability of 50th Rated TeamHardestEasiest (95% threshold)> 95% Probability Games22-3, 2 left
Record:
22-8
#50 Fcst:
27.5-2.5
Act Win %:
73%
#50 Fcst %:
92%
TWV:
-5.5
Win
Loss
Future Game
Comparing 5 games vs 2,190 total <95% games in dataset

Wins to Seed Map

UMBC logo
05101520Penn State-York Location: Home 11/04 Win Probability: 100%100%H23Notre Dame of Maryland Location: Home 11/24 Win Probability: 100%100%H24Delaware State Location: Home 11/29 Win Probability: 97%97%H1Binghamton Location: Home 02/05 Win Probability: 96%96%H2Bryant Location: Home 02/26 Win Probability: 95%95%H3New Hampshire Location: Home 01/10 Win Probability: 95%95%H4New Hampshire Location: Home 03/07 Win Probability: 95%95%H5Maine Location: Home 01/08 Win Probability: 94%94%H6Coppin State Location: Away 12/29 Win Probability: 92%92%A7NJIT Location: Home 01/22 Win Probability: 91%91%H8Binghamton Location: Away 01/19 Win Probability: 90%90%A9Albany Location: Home 02/21 Win Probability: 90%90%H10Massachusetts-Lowell Location: Home 01/24 Win Probability: 89%89%H11Massachusetts-Lowell Location: Home 03/10 Win Probability: 89%89%H12Wagner Location: Home 11/16 Win Probability: 88%88%H13Morgan State Location: Away 11/11 Win Probability: 87%87%A14New Hampshire Location: Away 02/14 Win Probability: 87%87%A15Maine Location: Away 02/12 Win Probability: 86%86%A16NJIT Location: Away 03/03 Win Probability: 80%80%A17Bucknell Location: Away 12/06 Win Probability: 80%80%A18Vermont Location: Home 02/19 Win Probability: 77%77%H19Vermont Location: Home 03/14 Win Probability: 77%77%H20Albany Location: Away 01/31 Win Probability: 76%76%A21Massachusetts-Lowell Location: Away 02/28 Win Probability: 76%76%A2222WinProbLocGameOppWinsNCAASeed- wins to date- future games- JThom proj winsWin Prob = probability team would win vs opponent;Loc = location of the game (H=Home, A=Away, N=Neutral)Game = current wins and count of potential remaining games; Opp = Opponent;NCAA Seed = expected seed by winsProjected seed range for team based on number of victories.Schedule strength factors into range that is identified.Proj Wins is average total wins in regular season and conferencetournament by team based on 1,000 season simulations using compositeratings based on kenpom, barttorvik and evanmiya.

Win Values Over Time

Team logo

NCAA Tournament Seed Projections

Team logo
WinsSeedNCAA Tourney StatusBid CategoryTotal
1314In Tourney %First Four OutNext Four OutOut of TourneyAuto BidAt Large
229%91%100%100%100%
Total9%91%100%100%

Rating History

Loading rank history...

Projected Wins History

Loading historical data...

Projected Standings History

Loading historical data...

First Place Probability History

Loading historical data...

NCAA Tournament Bid History

Loading NCAA bid history...

NCAA Tournament Progression History

Loading NCAA progression history...