College Football Playoff Projections
Updated: 07/14/2026
| Seed | Team | Conf | Category | Proj TWV | Proj Rtg | CFP Rtg % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Auto Bid | 2.69 | 76.16 | 100.0 | ||
| 2 | At Large | 1.46 | 71.28 | 89.8 | ||
| 3 | At Large | 1.47 | 71.05 | 89.7 | ||
| 4 | Auto Bid | 1.46 | 71.04 | 89.7 | ||
| 5 | At Large | 0.99 | 68.97 | 85.7 | ||
| 6 | At Large | 0.97 | 68.75 | 85.5 | ||
| 7 | Auto Bid | 0.63 | 67.44 | 82.7 | ||
| 8 | Auto Bid | 0.61 | 67.06 | 82.3 | ||
| 9 | At Large | 0.37 | 66.02 | 80.3 | ||
| 10 | At Large | 0.04 | 64.60 | 77.5 | ||
| 11 | At Large | 0.01 | 64.40 | 77.2 | ||
| 12 | Auto Bid | -1.43 | 57.55 | 64.7 | ||
| Out | First 4 Out | -0.03 | 64.15 | 76.9 | ||
| Out | First 4 Out | -0.09 | 63.84 | 76.3 | ||
| Out | First 4 Out | -0.28 | 62.91 | 74.7 | ||
| Out | First 4 Out | -0.44 | 62.15 | 73.3 | ||
| Out | Next 4 Out | -0.49 | 61.81 | 72.8 | ||
| Out | Next 4 Out | -0.61 | 61.52 | 71.9 | ||
| Out | Next 4 Out | -0.61 | 61.49 | 71.9 | ||
| Out | Next 4 Out | -0.62 | 61.20 | 71.7 |
CFP projections based on 1,000 season simulations.
Seed and rank are based on 70% TWV (performance) and 30% team rating — the weighting that most closely matches prior CFP rankings.
CFP Rtg % blends projected TWV and rating, scaled so the top team is 100% and the bottom is 0%.
Projected Bids by Conference
Projected CFP rank for all teams, based on 1,000 season simulations.

