College Football Playoff Projections

CFP Projections

Ranked by:

Seed	Team	Category	Record	Proj CFP TWV	Proj Rtg	CFP Rtg %
1	Miami	Auto Bid	8-0	2.80	1.70	100.0
2	Georgia	Auto Bid	7-1	2.47	1.78	98.9
3	Ohio State	Auto Bid	6-2	2.01	1.72	95.9
4	Utah	Auto Bid	8-0	2.30	1.50	95.7
5	Indiana	At Large	8-1	1.86	1.53	93.6
6	Texas	At Large	6-2	1.62	1.63	93.2
7	Ole Miss	At Large	6-2	1.53	1.54	92.0
8	Alabama	At Large	6-2	1.28	1.62	91.3
9	LSU	At Large	6-2	1.04	1.74	91.0
10	UCLA	At Large	8-0	1.81	1.20	90.7
11	Notre Dame	At Large	7-1	0.98	1.70	90.4
12	Boise State	Auto Bid	7-1	-0.21	0.98	78.1
Out	Kentucky	First 4 Out	7-1	1.63	1.05	88.4
Out	Wake Forest	First 4 Out	7-1	0.77	1.18	85.0
Out	Texas Tech	First 4 Out	7-1	0.50	1.14	83.2
Out	BYU	First 4 Out	7-1	0.62	1.06	83.2
Out	Tennessee	Next 4 Out	6-2	-0.22	1.22	80.0
Out	Florida	Next 4 Out	5-3	-0.16	1.00	78.6
Out	Iowa	Next 4 Out	6-2	-0.35	1.04	77.9
Out	USC	Next 4 Out	7-2	-0.61	1.11	77.1

CFP projections based on 1,000 season simulations.

Rank = 70% CFP TWV (results) + 30% team rating, the default: the mix that most closely matched the CFP committee over the past 2 seasons. Head-to-head breaks close calls.

CFP TWV: wins are compared to the probability the 25th-rated team would have won that game, and losses are compared to the probability the 1st-rated team would have lost that game. This most closely aligns with how the committee has rated teams. TWV 12: every game is compared to the 12th-rated team.

CFP Rtg %: top team = 100, bottom team = 0.

Projected Bids by Conference

Projected CFP rank for all teams, based on 1,000 season simulations.