CFP Seed Projections
| # | Team | Seed | CFP Status | Bid Category | ||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | In Playoffs % | First Four Out | Next Four Out | Out of Playoffs | Conf Champ | At Large | ||
| 1 |  | 7.6 | 0% | 2% | 5% | 6% | 5% | 6% | 6% | 8% | 9% | 6% | 8% | 7% | 67% | 6% | 9% | 33% | 77% | 23% |
| 2 |  | 7.6 | 1% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 2% | 3% | 4% | 3% | 4% | 4% | 33% | 7% | 13% | 67% | 59% | 41% |
| 3 |  | 7.5 | 1% | 1% | 1% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 1% | 23% | 11% | 7% | 77% | 59% | 41% |
| 4 |  | 8.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 7% | 4% | 8% | 93% | 42% | 58% |
| 5 |  | 8.2 | 0% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 6% | 3% | 7% | 94% | 41% | 59% |
| 6 |  | 7.8 | 0% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 6% | 6% | 3% | 94% | 47% | 53% | |
| 7 |  | 9.0 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 5% | 4% | 5% | 95% | 56% | 44% | |
| 8 |  | 8.7 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 3% | 4% | 3% | 97% | 59% | 41% | ||
| 9 |  | 9.7 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 2% | 99% | 29% | 71% | ||||||||
| 10 |  | 8.8 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 2% | 99% | 83% | 17% | |||||||
| 11 |  | 9.6 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 2% | 100% | 40% | 60% | ||||||||
| 12 |  | 8.0 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | <1% | 0% | 2% | 100% | 100% | |||||||||
| 13 |  | 10.8 | 0% | 0% | <1% | 0% | 0% | 100% | 100% | |||||||||||
| 14 |  | 6.0 | 0% | 0% | <1% | 1% | 100% | 50% | 50% | |||||||||||
| 15 |  | 11.0 | 0% | <1% | 0% | 100% | 100% | |||||||||||||
| 16 |  | - | 0% | 0% | 100% | |||||||||||||||
CFP seed distribution probabilities based on 1,000 season simulations using composite of multiple college football rating models.
Darker colors indicate higher probabilities.