CFP Seed Projections
| # | Team | Seed | CFP Status | Bid Category | ||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | In Playoffs % | First Four Out | Next Four Out | Out of Playoffs | Conf Champ | At Large | ||
| 1 |  | 8.1 | 1% | 2% | 5% | 7% | 6% | 5% | 7% | 8% | 7% | 9% | 7% | 63% | 11% | 6% | 37% | 81% | 19% | |
| 2 |  | 8.0 | 1% | 1% | 1% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 4% | 1% | 4% | 2% | 6% | 4% | 31% | 11% | 9% | 69% | 67% | 33% |
| 3 |  | 8.0 | 0% | 1% | 1% | 3% | 2% | 3% | 3% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 6% | 2% | 27% | 11% | 13% | 73% | 64% | 36% |
| 4 |  | 9.0 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 6% | 2% | 9% | 94% | 54% | 46% | |
| 5 |  | 8.2 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 4% | 4% | 3% | 96% | 43% | 57% | |||
| 6 |  | 8.6 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 4% | 3% | 7% | 96% | 55% | 45% | |
| 7 |  | 8.8 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 2% | 3% | 5% | 98% | 55% | 45% | ||||
| 8 |  | 10.3 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 99% | 73% | 27% | |||||||
| 9 |  | 10.7 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 99% | 57% | 43% | |||||||||
| 10 |  | 10.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 100% | 60% | 40% | |||||||||
| 11 |  | 8.3 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | <1% | 1% | 100% | 50% | 50% | |||||||||
| 12 |  | 5.5 | 0% | 0% | <1% | 0% | 1% | 100% | 100% | |||||||||||
| 13 |  | 7.0 | 0% | <1% | 1% | 1% | 100% | 50% | 50% | |||||||||||
| 14 |  | 12.0 | 0% | <1% | 0% | 0% | 100% | 100% | ||||||||||||
| 15 |  | 12.0 | 0% | <1% | 0% | 0% | 100% | 100% | ||||||||||||
| 16 |  | - | 0% | 100% | ||||||||||||||||
CFP seed distribution probabilities based on 1,000 season simulations using composite of multiple college football rating models.
Darker colors indicate higher probabilities.