CFP Seed Projections
| # | Team | Seed | CFP Status | Bid Category | ||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | In Playoffs % | First Four Out | Next Four Out | Out of Playoffs | Conf Champ | At Large | ||
| 1 |  | 7.3 | 2% | 5% | 8% | 7% | 6% | 9% | 8% | 8% | 6% | 6% | 5% | 70% | 7% | 7% | 30% | 82% | 18% | |
| 2 |  | 7.1 | 0% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 2% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 4% | 3% | 1% | 25% | 13% | 6% | 75% | 52% | 48% |
| 3 |  | 7.9 | 0% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 3% | 2% | 3% | 3% | 1% | 21% | 7% | 14% | 79% | 53% | 47% |
| 4 |  | 8.0 | 0% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 0% | 1% | 10% | 6% | 7% | 91% | 51% | 50% | |
| 5 |  | 7.9 | 1% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 7% | 5% | 7% | 93% | 42% | 58% | |
| 6 |  | 8.3 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 5% | 4% | 10% | 95% | 35% | 65% | |||
| 7 |  | 8.2 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 2% | 3% | 2% | 98% | 29% | 71% | |||||
| 8 |  | 8.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 2% | 3% | 4% | 98% | 53% | 47% | |||||
| 9 |  | 9.2 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 5% | 99% | 46% | 54% | ||||||
| 10 |  | 8.2 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 3% | 99% | 18% | 82% | |||||||
| 11 |  | 8.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 2% | 100% | 40% | 60% | ||||||||
| 12 |  | 9.3 | 0% | 0% | <1% | 0% | 2% | 100% | 50% | 50% | ||||||||||
| 13 |  | 8.0 | 0% | <1% | 0% | 0% | 100% | 100% | ||||||||||||
| 14 |  | 10.0 | 0% | <1% | 0% | 1% | 100% | 100% | ||||||||||||
| 15 |  | - | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% | ||||||||||||||
| 16 |  | - | 0% | 0% | 100% | |||||||||||||||
CFP seed distribution probabilities based on 1,000 season simulations using composite of multiple college football rating models.
Darker colors indicate higher probabilities.