CFP Seed Projections
| # | Team | Seed | CFP Status | Bid Category | ||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | In Playoffs % | First Four Out | Next Four Out | Out of Playoffs | Conf Champ | At Large | ||
| 1 |  | 8.3 | 1% | 3% | 4% | 6% | 4% | 6% | 4% | 5% | 7% | 10% | 8% | 56% | 10% | 6% | 44% | 80% | 20% | |
| 2 |  | 7.9 | 0% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 5% | 3% | 29% | 10% | 13% | 71% | 66% | 34% |
| 3 |  | 8.4 | 1% | 0% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 1% | 3% | 3% | 5% | 5% | 29% | 8% | 9% | 71% | 74% | 26% |
| 4 |  | 9.2 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 7% | 4% | 10% | 93% | 68% | 32% | ||
| 5 |  | 9.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 4% | 4% | 6% | 97% | 66% | 34% | |||
| 6 |  | 8.9 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 3% | 2% | 8% | 97% | 58% | 42% | |||
| 7 |  | 8.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 3% | 4% | 2% | 97% | 48% | 52% | ||
| 8 |  | 10.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 99% | 100% | ||||||||
| 9 |  | 10.6 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 99% | 60% | 40% | |||||||
| 10 |  | 9.1 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 99% | 25% | 75% | ||||||
| 11 |  | 10.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 99% | 83% | 17% | ||||||||
| 12 |  | 11.2 | 0% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 100% | 40% | 60% | ||||||||||
| 13 |  | 10.8 | 0% | 0% | 0% | <1% | 1% | 100% | 75% | 25% | ||||||||||
| 14 |  | 9.0 | 0% | 0% | <1% | 0% | 1% | 100% | 100% | |||||||||||
| 15 |  | 12.0 | 0% | <1% | 0% | 100% | 100% | |||||||||||||
| 16 |  | - | 0% | 100% | ||||||||||||||||
CFP seed distribution probabilities based on 1,000 season simulations using composite of multiple college football rating models.
Darker colors indicate higher probabilities.