CFP Seed Projections
| # | Team | Seed | CFP Status | Bid Category | ||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | In Playoffs % | First Four Out | Next Four Out | Out of Playoffs | Conf Champ | At Large | ||
| 1 |  | 7.0 | 2% | 5% | 10% | 8% | 6% | 8% | 7% | 6% | 6% | 7% | 4% | 68% | 7% | 8% | 32% | 81% | 19% | |
| 2 |  | 7.3 | 1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 4% | 3% | 1% | 26% | 13% | 9% | 74% | 55% | 45% |
| 3 |  | 8.0 | 0% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 2% | 4% | 2% | 22% | 6% | 12% | 78% | 50% | 50% |
| 4 |  | 8.9 | 0% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 9% | 6% | 8% | 91% | 37% | 63% | ||
| 5 |  | 8.1 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 8% | 4% | 9% | 92% | 41% | 59% | |
| 6 |  | 8.0 | 0% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 7% | 5% | 9% | 93% | 32% | 68% | |
| 7 |  | 8.7 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 3% | 3% | 2% | 97% | 46% | 54% | |||
| 8 |  | 9.6 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 2% | 1% | 3% | 98% | 45% | 55% | |||
| 9 |  | 8.3 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 2% | 4% | 3% | 98% | 44% | 56% | |||||
| 10 |  | 8.2 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 99% | 40% | 60% | |||||
| 11 |  | 7.6 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 2% | 99% | 38% | 63% | |||||||
| 12 |  | 9.3 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 2% | 99% | 38% | 63% | ||||||
| 13 |  | 10.0 | 0% | <1% | 0% | 100% | 50% | 50% | ||||||||||||
| 14 |  | 11.0 | 0% | 0% | <1% | 1% | 100% | 100% | ||||||||||||
| 15 |  | 10.0 | 0% | <1% | 0% | 1% | 100% | 100% | ||||||||||||
| 16 |  | - | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% | ||||||||||||||
CFP seed distribution probabilities based on 1,000 season simulations using composite of multiple college football rating models.
Darker colors indicate higher probabilities.