JThom Analytics Logo
Virginia logo

Virginia #14

Team Page

29-5
Overall
15-3
Conference
100%
NCAA Bid
3.0
Avg Seed
Atlantic Coast logo

Team Schedule

Virginia logo

Away

8-2
Duke logo
#1
Louisville logo
#19
North Carolina State logo
#36
Texas logo
#42
SMU logo
#43
Virginia Tech logo
#55
Florida State logo
#58
Notre Dame logo
#93
Boston College logo
#143
Georgia Tech logo
#158

Neutral

5-2
Duke logo
#1
Ohio State logo
#23
Miami logo
#28
North Carolina State logo
#36
Northwestern logo
#60
Dayton logo
#73
Butler logo
#87

Home

16-1
Miami logo
#28
North Carolina logo
#35
North Carolina State logo
#36
Virginia Tech logo
#55
Stanford logo
#62
Wake Forest logo
#67
California logo
#74
Syracuse logo
#83
Pittsburgh logo
#100
Maryland logo
#112
Queens (NC) logo
#191
Marshall logo
#200
American logo
#243
Hampton logo
#278
North Carolina Central logo
#348
Maryland Eastern Shore logo
#352
Rider logo
#357

Schedule Chart

Virginia logo
DateLocOppRtgWin %#50 Win%Score
Nov 3Home
Rider logo
#357100%100%87-53
Nov 7Home
North Carolina Central logo
#348100%99%81-62
Nov 11Home
Hampton logo
#27899%98%91-53
Nov 15Home
Marshall logo
#20098%95%104-78
Nov 21Neutral
Northwestern logo
#6082%59%83-78
Nov 23Neutral
Butler logo
#8788%69%73-80
Nov 28Home
Queens (NC) logo
#19198%94%94-69
Dec 3Away
Texas logo
#4259%32%88-69
Dec 6Neutral
Dayton logo
#7385%64%86-73
Dec 9Home
Maryland Eastern Shore logo
#352100%99%84-60
Dec 20Home
Maryland logo
#11295%86%80-72
Dec 22Home
American logo
#24399%97%95-51
Dec 31Away
Virginia Tech logo
#5570%43%85-95
Jan 3Away
North Carolina State logo
#3657%31%76-61
Jan 7Home
California logo
#7490%74%84-60
Jan 10Home
Stanford logo
#6288%71%70-55
Jan 13Away
Louisville logo
#1942%19%79-70
Jan 17Away
SMU logo
#4359%33%72-68
Jan 24Home
North Carolina logo
#3578%54%80-85
Jan 27Away
Notre Dame logo
#9383%62%100-97
Jan 31Away
Boston College logo
#14392%79%73-66
Feb 3Home
Pittsburgh logo
#10094%83%67-47
Feb 7Home
Syracuse logo
#8391%77%72-59
Feb 10Away
Florida State logo
#5871%45%61-58
Feb 14Neutral
Ohio State logo
#2360%32%70-66
Feb 18Away
Georgia Tech logo
#15893%81%94-68
Feb 21Home
Miami logo
#2875%50%86-83
Feb 24Home
North Carolina State logo
#3678%54%90-61
Feb 28Away
Duke logo
#118%7%51-77
Mar 3Home
Wake Forest logo
#6789%73%75-70
Mar 7Home
Virginia Tech logo
#5586%67%76-72
Mar 12Neutral
North Carolina State logo
#3669%42%81-74
Mar 13Neutral
Miami logo
#2866%38%84-62
Mar 14Neutral
Duke logo
#125%10%70-74

Schedule Difficulty

Team logo
0%7%10%18%20%27%30%34%40%43%50%52%60%57%70%66%80%75%90%83%100%95%DukeDukeLouisvilleNorth Carolina StateTexasOhio StateSMUMiamiNorth Carolina StateVirginia TechFlorida StateMiamiNorth CarolinaNorth Carolina StateNorthwesternNotre DameDaytonVirginia TechButlerStanfordWake ForestCaliforniaSyracuseBoston CollegeGeorgia TechPittsburghMarylandQueens (NC)MarshallDifficulty Percentile: Games <95% Probability for 50th Rated TeamWin Probability of 50th Rated TeamHardestEasiest (95% threshold)> 95% Probability Games5-0, 0 left
Record:
29-5
#50 Fcst:
21.1-12.9
Act Win %:
85%
#50 Fcst %:
62%
TWV:
+7.9
Win
Loss
Future Game
Comparing 29 games vs 2,190 total <95% games in dataset

Wins to Seed Map

Virginia logo
0510152025Rider Location: Home 11/03 Win Probability: 100%100%H1Maryland Eastern Shore Location: Home 12/09 Win Probability: 100%100%H2North Carolina Central Location: Home 11/07 Win Probability: 100%100%H3Hampton Location: Home 11/11 Win Probability: 99%99%H4American Location: Home 12/22 Win Probability: 99%99%H5Marshall Location: Home 11/15 Win Probability: 98%98%H6Queens (NC) Location: Home 11/28 Win Probability: 98%98%H7Maryland Location: Home 12/20 Win Probability: 95%95%H8Pittsburgh Location: Home 02/03 Win Probability: 94%94%H9Georgia Tech Location: Away 02/18 Win Probability: 93%93%A10Boston College Location: Away 01/31 Win Probability: 92%92%A11Syracuse Location: Home 02/07 Win Probability: 91%91%H12California Location: Home 01/07 Win Probability: 90%90%H13Wake Forest Location: Home 03/03 Win Probability: 89%89%H14Stanford Location: Home 01/10 Win Probability: 88%88%H15Virginia Tech Location: Home 03/07 Win Probability: 86%86%H16Dayton Location: Neutral 12/06 Win Probability: 85%85%N17Notre Dame Location: Away 01/27 Win Probability: 83%83%A18Northwestern Location: Neutral 11/21 Win Probability: 82%82%N19North Carolina State Location: Home 02/24 Win Probability: 78%78%H20Miami Location: Home 02/21 Win Probability: 75%75%H21Florida State Location: Away 02/10 Win Probability: 71%71%A22North Carolina State Location: Neutral 03/12 Win Probability: 69%69%N23Miami Location: Neutral 03/13 Win Probability: 66%66%N24Ohio State Location: Neutral 02/14 Win Probability: 60%60%N25SMU Location: Away 01/17 Win Probability: 59%59%A26Texas Location: Away 12/03 Win Probability: 59%59%A27North Carolina State Location: Away 01/03 Win Probability: 57%57%A28Louisville Location: Away 01/13 Win Probability: 42%42%A2929WinProbLocGameOppWinsNCAASeed- wins to date- future games- JThom proj winsWin Prob = probability team would win vs opponent;Loc = location of the game (H=Home, A=Away, N=Neutral)Game = current wins and count of potential remaining games; Opp = Opponent;NCAA Seed = expected seed by winsProjected seed range for team based on number of victories.Schedule strength factors into range that is identified.Proj Wins is average total wins in regular season and conferencetournament by team based on 1,000 season simulations using compositeratings based on kenpom, barttorvik and evanmiya.

Win Values Over Time

Team logo

NCAA Tournament Seed Projections

Team logo
WinsSeedNCAA Tourney StatusBid CategoryTotal
3In Tourney %First Four OutNext Four OutOut of TourneyAuto BidAt Large
29100%100%100%100%
Total100%100%100%

Rating History

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Projected Wins History

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Projected Standings History

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First Place Probability History

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NCAA Tournament Bid History

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NCAA Tournament Progression History

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