JThom Analytics Logo
UNC Asheville logo

UNC Asheville #238

Team Page

12-20
Overall
8-8
Conference
0%
NCAA Bid
-
Avg Seed
Big South logo

Team Schedule

UNC Asheville logo

Away

4-9
North Carolina State logo
#36
Wichita State logo
#82
High Point logo
#89
UAB logo
#128
Winthrop logo
#155
Western Carolina logo
#216
Georgia Southern logo
#228
Radford logo
#242
Charleston Southern logo
#244
Longwood logo
#259
Presbyterian logo
#271
USC Upstate logo
#305
Gardner-Webb logo
#363

Neutral

3-1
High Point logo
#89
Appalachian State logo
#184
Longwood logo
#259
UNCG logo
#292

Home

5-7
High Point logo
#89
Miami (OH) logo
#90
St. Thomas (MN) logo
#108
Winthrop logo
#155
Tennessee State logo
#194
Lipscomb logo
#218
Radford logo
#242
Charleston Southern logo
#244
Longwood logo
#259
Presbyterian logo
#271
USC Upstate logo
#305
Gardner-Webb logo
#363
Bryan College logo
Non D1
Kentucky Christian logo
Non D1
Morris College logo
Non D1

Schedule Chart

UNC Asheville logo
DateLocOppRtgWin %#50 Win%Score
Nov 4Away
Wichita State logo
#826%54%58-75
Nov 8Away
Georgia Southern logo
#22836%91%90-93
Nov 11Home
Lipscomb logo
#21855%96%69-64
Nov 13Home
Bryan College logo
Non D1100%100%
Nov 19Away
Western Carolina logo
#21631%89%73-80
Nov 25Home
Tennessee State logo
#19447%94%73-75
Nov 30Neutral
Appalachian State logo
#18433%91%67-55
Dec 2Neutral
UNCG logo
#29265%97%82-77
Dec 6Away
North Carolina State logo
#362%31%63-75
Dec 10Home
Miami (OH) logo
#9018%80%87-90
Dec 13Home
St. Thomas (MN) logo
#10824%85%59-80
Dec 16Home
Kentucky Christian logo
Non D1100%100%
Dec 18Home
Morris College logo
Non D1100%100%
Dec 21Away
UAB logo
#12814%75%47-72
Dec 31Home
High Point logo
#8917%79%69-87
Jan 3Away
Charleston Southern logo
#24439%92%83-86
Jan 7Home
Longwood logo
#25967%97%72-61
Jan 10Away
Radford logo
#24238%92%91-72
Jan 14Away
Presbyterian logo
#27146%94%70-71
Jan 17Home
Winthrop logo
#15538%92%67-69
Jan 21Away
USC Upstate logo
#30557%96%83-69
Jan 29Home
Gardner-Webb logo
#36394%100%69-50
Jan 31Away
Winthrop logo
#15519%81%71-84
Feb 4Home
USC Upstate logo
#30578%98%76-67
Feb 12Away
Longwood logo
#25943%93%79-74
Feb 14Home
Presbyterian logo
#27169%98%57-58
Feb 19Away
High Point logo
#897%59%48-74
Feb 21Home
Radford logo
#24262%97%74-73
Feb 26Away
Gardner-Webb logo
#36386%99%77-71
Feb 28Home
Charleston Southern logo
#24463%97%75-92
Mar 6Neutral
Longwood logo
#25955%96%85-82
Mar 7Neutral
High Point logo
#8911%71%71-75

Schedule Difficulty

Team logo
0%7%10%18%20%27%30%34%40%43%50%52%60%57%70%66%80%75%90%83%100%95%North Carolina StateWichita StateHigh PointHigh PointUABHigh PointMiami (OH)WinthropSt. Thomas (MN)Western CarolinaGeorgia SouthernAppalachian StateWinthropRadfordCharleston SouthernLongwoodPresbyterianTennessee StateDifficulty Percentile: Games <95% Probability for 50th Rated TeamWin Probability of 50th Rated TeamHardestEasiest (95% threshold)> 95% Probability Games9-2, 3 left
Record:
12-17
#50 Fcst:
25.1-3.9
Act Win %:
41%
#50 Fcst %:
87%
TWV:
-13.1
Win
Loss
Future Game
Comparing 18 games vs 2,190 total <95% games in dataset

Wins to Seed Map

UNC Asheville logo
051015Bryan College Location: Home 11/13 Win Probability: 100%100%H13Kentucky Christian Location: Home 12/16 Win Probability: 100%100%H14Morris College Location: Home 12/18 Win Probability: 100%100%H15Gardner-Webb Location: Home 01/29 Win Probability: 94%94%H1Gardner-Webb Location: Away 02/26 Win Probability: 86%86%A2USC Upstate Location: Home 02/04 Win Probability: 78%78%H3Longwood Location: Home 01/07 Win Probability: 67%67%H4UNCG Location: Neutral 12/02 Win Probability: 65%65%N5Radford Location: Home 02/21 Win Probability: 62%62%H6USC Upstate Location: Away 01/21 Win Probability: 57%57%A7Longwood Location: Neutral 03/06 Win Probability: 55%55%N8Lipscomb Location: Home 11/11 Win Probability: 55%55%H9Longwood Location: Away 02/12 Win Probability: 43%43%A10Radford Location: Away 01/10 Win Probability: 38%38%A11Appalachian State Location: Neutral 11/30 Win Probability: 33%33%N1212WinProbLocGameOppWinsNCAASeed- wins to date- future games- JThom proj winsWin Prob = probability team would win vs opponent;Loc = location of the game (H=Home, A=Away, N=Neutral)Game = current wins and count of potential remaining games; Opp = Opponent;NCAA Seed = expected seed by winsProjected seed range for team based on number of victories.Schedule strength factors into range that is identified.Proj Wins is average total wins in regular season and conferencetournament by team based on 1,000 season simulations using compositeratings based on kenpom, barttorvik and evanmiya.

Win Values Over Time

Team logo

NCAA Tournament Seed Projections

Team logo
WinsNCAA Tourney StatusBid CategoryTotal
In Tourney %First Four OutNext Four OutOut of TourneyAuto BidAt Large
12100%100%
Total100%

Rating History

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Projected Wins History

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Projected Standings History

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First Place Probability History

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NCAA Tournament Bid History

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NCAA Tournament Progression History

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