JThom Analytics Logo
Mount St. Mary's logo

Mount St. Mary's #269

Team Page

14-18
Overall
11-9
Conference
0%
NCAA Bid
-
Avg Seed
Metro Atlantic Athletic logo

Team Schedule

Mount St. Mary's logo

Away

7-11
Ohio State logo
#23
Cincinnati logo
#33
West Virginia logo
#59
Maryland logo
#112
Merrimack College logo
#171
Marist logo
#198
Drexel logo
#212
Quinnipiac logo
#214
Saint Peter's logo
#237
Iona logo
#248
Fairfield logo
#257
Western Michigan logo
#280
Sacred Heart logo
#287
Loyola Maryland logo
#320
Niagara logo
#335
Canisius logo
#342
Saint Francis U logo
#354
Rider logo
#357

Neutral

0-1
Siena logo
#183

Home

7-5
Merrimack College logo
#171
Siena logo
#183
Howard logo
#196
Quinnipiac logo
#214
Saint Peter's logo
#237
Iona logo
#248
Sacred Heart logo
#287
Bucknell logo
#327
Manhattan logo
#329
Niagara logo
#335
Canisius logo
#342
Rider logo
#357
Penn State-Brandywine logo
Non D1

Schedule Chart

Mount St. Mary's logo
DateLocOppRtgWin %#50 Win%Score
Nov 4Away
West Virginia logo
#593%46%54-70
Nov 7Home
Bucknell logo
#32779%99%62-73
Nov 11Away
Saint Francis U logo
#35473%99%74-66
Nov 16Away
Cincinnati logo
#332%30%55-72
Nov 19Away
Maryland logo
#1128%70%90-95
Nov 23Away
Western Michigan logo
#28041%95%60-83
Nov 25Away
Ohio State logo
#231%23%60-113
Nov 29Home
Howard logo
#19641%95%79-75
Dec 3Home
Sacred Heart logo
#28767%98%80-87
Dec 5Away
Marist logo
#19821%87%56-64
Dec 13Away
Loyola Maryland logo
#32054%97%81-73
Dec 19Away
Drexel logo
#21224%89%67-75
Dec 21Home
Penn State-Brandywine logo
Non D1100%100%
Dec 29Home
Iona logo
#24856%97%66-59
Jan 2Away
Merrimack College logo
#17117%83%65-75
Jan 4Away
Quinnipiac logo
#21424%89%69-80
Jan 9Home
Saint Peter's logo
#23754%97%70-65
Jan 11Home
Siena logo
#18337%94%50-67
Jan 17Away
Canisius logo
#34266%98%78-68
Jan 19Away
Niagara logo
#33563%98%68-58
Jan 22Home
Quinnipiac logo
#21446%96%62-77
Jan 24Home
Rider logo
#35789%100%71-61
Jan 30Away
Saint Peter's logo
#23731%92%58-66
Feb 1Home
Manhattan logo
#32979%99%72-65
Feb 5Home
Merrimack College logo
#17135%93%70-87
Feb 7Away
Iona logo
#24833%92%83-76
Feb 13Away
Rider logo
#35776%99%65-55
Feb 20Home
Niagara logo
#33582%99%76-63
Feb 22Home
Canisius logo
#34284%99%68-47
Feb 27Away
Sacred Heart logo
#28743%95%69-77
Mar 1Away
Fairfield logo
#25734%93%69-47
Mar 7Neutral
Siena logo
#18326%91%58-63

Schedule Difficulty

Team logo
0%7%10%18%20%27%30%34%40%43%50%52%60%57%70%66%80%75%90%83%100%95%Ohio StateCincinnatiWest VirginiaMarylandMerrimack CollegeMaristDrexelQuinnipiacSienaSaint Peter'sIonaFairfieldMerrimack CollegeSienaWestern MichiganHowardSacred HeartDifficulty Percentile: Games <95% Probability for 50th Rated TeamWin Probability of 50th Rated TeamHardestEasiest (95% threshold)> 95% Probability Games11-3, 1 left
Record:
14-17
#50 Fcst:
27.3-3.7
Act Win %:
45%
#50 Fcst %:
88%
TWV:
-13.3
Win
Loss
Future Game
Comparing 17 games vs 2,190 total <95% games in dataset

Wins to Seed Map

Mount St. Mary's logo
051015Penn State-Brandywine Location: Home 12/21 Win Probability: 100%100%H15Rider Location: Home 01/24 Win Probability: 89%89%H1Canisius Location: Home 02/22 Win Probability: 84%84%H2Niagara Location: Home 02/20 Win Probability: 82%82%H3Manhattan Location: Home 02/01 Win Probability: 79%79%H4Rider Location: Away 02/13 Win Probability: 76%76%A5Saint Francis U Location: Away 11/11 Win Probability: 73%73%A6Canisius Location: Away 01/17 Win Probability: 66%66%A7Niagara Location: Away 01/19 Win Probability: 63%63%A8Iona Location: Home 12/29 Win Probability: 56%56%H9Saint Peter's Location: Home 01/09 Win Probability: 54%54%H10Loyola Maryland Location: Away 12/13 Win Probability: 54%54%A11Howard Location: Home 11/29 Win Probability: 41%41%H12Fairfield Location: Away 03/01 Win Probability: 34%34%A13Iona Location: Away 02/07 Win Probability: 33%33%A1414WinProbLocGameOppWinsNCAASeed- wins to date- future games- JThom proj winsWin Prob = probability team would win vs opponent;Loc = location of the game (H=Home, A=Away, N=Neutral)Game = current wins and count of potential remaining games; Opp = Opponent;NCAA Seed = expected seed by winsProjected seed range for team based on number of victories.Schedule strength factors into range that is identified.Proj Wins is average total wins in regular season and conferencetournament by team based on 1,000 season simulations using compositeratings based on kenpom, barttorvik and evanmiya.

Win Values Over Time

Team logo

NCAA Tournament Seed Projections

Team logo
WinsNCAA Tourney StatusBid CategoryTotal
In Tourney %First Four OutNext Four OutOut of TourneyAuto BidAt Large
14100%100%
Total100%

Rating History

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Projected Wins History

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Projected Standings History

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First Place Probability History

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NCAA Tournament Bid History

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NCAA Tournament Progression History

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