JThom Analytics Logo
California logo

California #74

Team Page

21-11
Overall
9-9
Conference
0%
NCAA Bid
-
Avg Seed
Atlantic Coast logo

Team Schedule

California logo

Away

4-6
Virginia logo
#14
Miami logo
#28
Virginia Tech logo
#55
Florida State logo
#58
Stanford logo
#62
Wake Forest logo
#67
Syracuse logo
#83
Kansas State logo
#95
Boston College logo
#143
Georgia Tech logo
#158

Neutral

1-1
UCLA logo
#26
Florida State logo
#58

Home

16-4
Duke logo
#1
Louisville logo
#19
Clemson logo
#32
North Carolina logo
#35
SMU logo
#43
Stanford logo
#62
Notre Dame logo
#93
Pittsburgh logo
#100
Pacific logo
#113
Utah logo
#126
Wright State logo
#135
Georgia Tech logo
#158
Cal State Fullerton logo
#189
Columbia logo
#197
Presbyterian logo
#271
Sacramento State logo
#274
Northwestern State logo
#295
Bakersfield logo
#332
Morgan State logo
#351
Dominican (CA) logo
Non D1

Schedule Chart

California logo
DateLocOppRtgWin %#50 Win%Score
Nov 3Home
Bakersfield logo
#33298%99%87-60
Nov 6Home
Wright State logo
#13584%90%77-67
Nov 10Home
Cal State Fullerton logo
#18990%94%93-65
Nov 13Away
Kansas State logo
#9549%63%96-99
Nov 18Home
Presbyterian logo
#27196%98%67-57
Nov 21Home
Sacramento State logo
#27496%98%91-67
Nov 25Neutral
UCLA logo
#2622%34%80-72
Dec 2Home
Utah logo
#12681%88%79-72
Dec 6Home
Pacific logo
#11378%86%67-61
Dec 9Home
Dominican (CA) logo
Non D1100%100%W
Dec 13Home
Northwestern State logo
#29597%98%79-70
Dec 19Home
Morgan State logo
#35199%99%97-50
Dec 21Home
Columbia logo
#19791%95%74-56
Dec 30Home
Louisville logo
#1926%38%70-90
Jan 2Home
Notre Dame logo
#9371%81%72-71
Jan 7Away
Virginia logo
#1410%17%60-84
Jan 10Away
Virginia Tech logo
#5530%43%75-78
Jan 14Home
Duke logo
#110%16%56-71
Jan 17Home
North Carolina logo
#3540%54%84-78
Jan 24Away
Stanford logo
#6234%47%78-66
Jan 28Away
Florida State logo
#5832%45%61-63
Jan 31Away
Miami logo
#2818%27%86-85
Feb 4Home
Georgia Tech logo
#15887%92%90-85
Feb 7Home
Clemson logo
#3238%52%55-77
Feb 11Away
Syracuse logo
#8341%55%100-107
Feb 14Away
Boston College logo
#14368%79%86-75
Feb 21Home
Stanford logo
#6258%71%72-66
Feb 25Home
SMU logo
#4342%56%73-69
Feb 28Home
Pittsburgh logo
#10074%83%56-72
Mar 4Away
Georgia Tech logo
#15871%81%76-65
Mar 7Away
Wake Forest logo
#6736%50%73-80
Mar 11Neutral
Florida State logo
#5843%57%89-95

Schedule Difficulty

Team logo
0%7%10%18%20%27%30%34%40%43%50%52%60%57%70%66%80%75%90%83%100%95%DukeVirginiaMiamiUCLALouisvilleVirginia TechFlorida StateStanfordWake ForestClemsonNorth CarolinaSyracuseSMUFlorida StateKansas StateStanfordBoston CollegeNotre DameGeorgia TechPittsburghPacificUtahWright StateGeorgia TechCal State FullertonColumbiaDifficulty Percentile: Games <95% Probability for 50th Rated TeamWin Probability of 50th Rated TeamHardestEasiest (95% threshold)> 95% Probability Games6-0, 0 left
Record:
21-11
#50 Fcst:
21.9-10.1
Act Win %:
66%
#50 Fcst %:
68%
TWV:
-0.9
Win
Loss
Future Game
Comparing 26 games vs 2,190 total <95% games in dataset

Wins to Seed Map

California logo
05101520Dominican (CA) Location: Home 12/09 Win Probability: 100%100%H1Morgan State Location: Home 12/19 Win Probability: 99%99%H2Bakersfield Location: Home 11/03 Win Probability: 98%98%H3Northwestern State Location: Home 12/13 Win Probability: 97%97%H4Sacramento State Location: Home 11/21 Win Probability: 96%96%H5Presbyterian Location: Home 11/18 Win Probability: 96%96%H6Columbia Location: Home 12/21 Win Probability: 91%91%H7Cal State Fullerton Location: Home 11/10 Win Probability: 90%90%H8Georgia Tech Location: Home 02/04 Win Probability: 87%87%H9Wright State Location: Home 11/06 Win Probability: 84%84%H10Utah Location: Home 12/02 Win Probability: 81%81%H11Pacific Location: Home 12/06 Win Probability: 78%78%H12Georgia Tech Location: Away 03/04 Win Probability: 71%71%A13Notre Dame Location: Home 01/02 Win Probability: 71%71%H14Boston College Location: Away 02/14 Win Probability: 68%68%A15Stanford Location: Home 02/21 Win Probability: 58%58%H16SMU Location: Home 02/25 Win Probability: 42%42%H17North Carolina Location: Home 01/17 Win Probability: 40%40%H18Stanford Location: Away 01/24 Win Probability: 34%34%A19UCLA Location: Neutral 11/25 Win Probability: 22%22%N20Miami Location: Away 01/31 Win Probability: 18%18%A2121WinProbLocGameOppWinsNCAASeed- wins to date- future games- JThom proj winsWin Prob = probability team would win vs opponent;Loc = location of the game (H=Home, A=Away, N=Neutral)Game = current wins and count of potential remaining games; Opp = Opponent;NCAA Seed = expected seed by winsProjected seed range for team based on number of victories.Schedule strength factors into range that is identified.Proj Wins is average total wins in regular season and conferencetournament by team based on 1,000 season simulations using compositeratings based on kenpom, barttorvik and evanmiya.

Win Values Over Time

Team logo

NCAA Tournament Seed Projections

Team logo
WinsNCAA Tourney StatusBid CategoryTotal
In Tourney %First Four OutNext Four OutOut of TourneyAuto BidAt Large
21100%100%100%
Total100%100%

Rating History

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Projected Wins History

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Projected Standings History

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First Place Probability History

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NCAA Tournament Bid History

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NCAA Tournament Progression History

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