NCAA Tournament Projections

Probabilities to reach each round of the NCAA tournament based on 1,000 season simulations using composite ratings based on kenpom, barttorvik and evanmiya.

Darker colors indicate higher probabilities.

#
1	100%	98%	72%	48%	28%	16%	8%
2	100%	96%	71%	45%	27%	14%	7%
3	100%	93%	63%	33%	18%	8%	5%
4	100%	92%	62%	35%	18%	8%	3%
5	100%	88%	53%	26%	13%	6%	2%
6	95%	55%	22%	8%	2%	1%	0%
7	66%	22%	7%	2%	0%	0%	0%
8	81%	36%	11%	4%	1%	0%
9	50%	14%	3%	1%	0%	0%
10	83%	39%	11%	4%	1%	0%
11	54%	14%	3%	1%	0%	0%
12	19%	3%	0%	0%
13	27%	4%	0%
14	3%	0%	0%
15	2%	0%
16	2%

#
1	100%	98%	72%	48%	28%	16%	8%
2	100%	96%	71%	45%	27%	14%	7%
3	100%	93%	63%	33%	18%	8%	5%
4	100%	92%	62%	35%	18%	8%	3%
5	100%	88%	53%	26%	13%	6%	2%
6	95%	55%	22%	8%	2%	1%	0%
7	66%	22%	7%	2%	0%	0%	0%
8	81%	36%	11%	4%	1%	0%
9	50%	14%	3%	1%	0%	0%
10	83%	39%	11%	4%	1%	0%
11	54%	14%	3%	1%	0%	0%
12	19%	3%	0%	0%
13	27%	4%	0%
14	3%	0%	0%
15	2%	0%
16	2%