NCAA Tournament
| # | Team | First Round | Second Round | Sweet Sixteen | Elite Eight | Final Four | Champion- ship | Champion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  | 100% | 99% | 82% | 64% | 42% | 25% | 13% |
| 2 |  | 100% | 97% | 75% | 46% | 27% | 15% | 7% |
| 2 |  | 100% | 98% | 76% | 49% | 22% | 11% | 6% |
| 4 |  | 100% | 90% | 43% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 1% |
| 5 |  | 100% | 76% | 39% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 1% |
| 6 |  | 100% | 54% | 19% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% |
| 9 |  | 100% | 34% | 4% | 2% | 0% | 0% | |
| 10 |  | 100% | 30% | 6% | 1% | |||
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Probabilities to reach each round of the NCAA tournament based on 1,000 season simulations using composite ratings based on kenpom, barttorvik and evanmiya.
Darker colors indicate higher probabilities.