Basketball Tournament Projections

Seed	Team	Category	Proj TWV 30	Proj TWV 50decides bid	Proj TWV 200	Proj Rtg	Blend 30	Blend 50	Blend 200
1	Florida	Auto Bid	8.2	11.5	23.4	34.3	100.0	100.0	100.0
1	Duke	Auto Bid	7.8	10.8	22.9	33.3	98.7	98.1	98.6
1	Illinois	Auto Bid	6.8	10.0	22.2	31.2	95.4	95.5	96.0
1	Arizona	Auto Bid	6.0	9.2	20.5	29.9	93.1	93.1	92.3
2	Houston	At Large	5.6	8.8	21.6	29.5	92.0	92.1	93.8
2	Kansas	At Large	5.3	8.5	20.8	28.9	91.1	91.3	92.2
2	Connecticut	Auto Bid	4.3	7.6	18.7	27.7	88.4	88.8	87.9
2	Michigan State	At Large	4.2	7.2	19.1	27.3	87.9	87.9	88.3
3	Iowa State	At Large	4.2	7.1	18.2	27.3	87.9	87.8	86.7
3	Alabama	At Large	3.8	7.2	18.9	27.6	87.2	88.0	88.1
3	Gonzaga	Auto Bid	3.5	6.3	20.7	25.8	85.7	85.5	90.0
3	Louisville	At Large	3.3	6.4	18.5	25.9	85.2	85.6	86.4
4	Texas Tech	At Large	3.2	6.1	16.2	25.3	84.7	84.8	82.1
4	Michigan	At Large	2.8	6.2	17.7	25.8	84.3	85.2	84.9
4	St. John's	At Large	2.9	6.2	19.2	25.5	84.3	85.0	87.3
4	Virginia	At Large	2.8	5.7	17.4	25.0	83.8	83.7	83.9
5	Tennessee	At Large	2.4	5.6	16.3	24.8	82.9	83.5	81.9
5	Texas	At Large	2.5	5.5	15.6	24.7	83.0	83.3	80.5
5	Miami	At Large	2.3	5.1	16.5	24.3	82.3	82.3	82.0
5	Nebraska	At Large	1.7	4.8	16.4	23.5	80.6	81.2	81.3
6	Arkansas	At Large	1.3	4.1	14.4	22.9	79.4	79.7	77.4
6	Vanderbilt	At Large	1.2	4.0	14.6	22.8	79.2	79.4	77.7
6	Purdue	At Large	0.7	3.9	16.6	22.4	78.1	79.0	80.9
6	Kentucky	At Large	1.0	3.9	14.0	22.4	78.5	79.0	76.5
7	UCLA	At Large	0.8	3.8	15.7	22.2	78.0	78.6	79.2
7	Ohio State	At Large	0.8	3.8	15.0	22.0	78.0	78.4	77.9
7	BYU	At Large	0.4	3.4	16.2	21.6	76.9	77.5	79.7
7	Auburn	At Large	0.1	3.2	14.0	21.4	76.2	77.1	75.8
8	Oklahoma	At Large	0.3	3.2	13.7	21.2	76.5	76.9	75.2
8	Texas A&M	At Large	0.1	3.1	13.9	21.1	76.0	76.8	75.4
8	Villanova	At Large	-0.1	3.0	15.0	20.9	75.4	76.3	77.2
8	Marquette	At Large	-0.5	2.7	14.7	20.5	74.6	75.6	76.4
9	Baylor	At Large	-0.9	2.1	12.9	19.7	73.3	74.0	72.9
9	Georgia	At Large	-0.9	1.8	12.1	19.6	73.1	73.5	71.5
9	Cincinnati	At Large	-1.1	1.8	14.2	19.6	72.7	73.4	75.0
9	USC	At Large	-1.4	1.7	14.6	19.0	71.8	72.9	75.3
10	Indiana	At Large	-1.7	1.5	13.4	18.9	71.2	72.5	73.1
10	Creighton	At Large	-1.9	1.4	13.7	18.7	70.7	72.2	73.6
10	Wisconsin	Play-In Game	-1.7	1.4	13.5	18.6	70.9	72.1	73.3
10	Missouri	Play-In Game	-1.7	1.3	10.9	18.6	71.0	71.9	68.8
10	North Carolina	Play-In Game	-2.4	0.6	13.5	17.7	68.9	70.1	72.6
10	North Carolina State	Play-In Game	-2.1	0.5	13.8	17.6	69.6	70.0	73.1
11	West Virginia	Play-In Game	-2.5	0.5	11.8	17.6	68.9	69.9	69.8
11	LSU	Play-In Game	-2.5	0.5	11.4	17.5	68.8	69.7	69.0
11	Grand Canyon	Auto Bid	-1.5	0.5	14.2	17.5	70.8	69.8	73.8
11	Clemson	Play-In Game	-2.7	0.3	13.4	17.4	68.3	69.4	72.3
11	Iowa	Play-In Game	-2.8	0.3	11.4	17.4	68.1	69.3	68.9
11	Maryland	Last 4 In	-2.9	0.2	11.7	17.2	67.6	69.1	69.2
11	Providence	Last 4 In	-3.1	0.1	12.8	16.9	67.1	68.7	70.9
12	Ole Miss	Last 4 In	-3.0	0.0	10.9	16.8	67.4	68.5	67.7
12	Virginia Tech	Last 4 In	-3.1	-0.1	13.2	16.7	67.1	68.2	71.5
12	VCU	Auto Bid	-2.7	-0.3	14.2	16.4	67.8	67.6	73.1
12	Saint Mary's	Auto Bid	-6.0	-4.0	11.5	10.3	57.5	57.2	64.5
12	Wichita State	Auto Bid	-5.7	-3.8	10.8	10.8	58.4	58.0	63.7
13	High Point	Auto Bid	-2.0	-1.1	9.1	15.1	68.4	65.5	63.5
13	Akron	Auto Bid	-5.8	-4.6	9.1	9.6	57.6	55.7	60.0
13	McNeese State	Auto Bid	-4.5	-3.5	8.0	11.7	61.4	58.9	59.5
13	UIC	Auto Bid	-6.5	-5.1	9.0	8.6	55.5	54.2	59.2
14	UC Santa Barbara	Auto Bid	-6.6	-5.4	8.2	7.9	54.9	53.3	57.4
14	UNCW	Auto Bid	-6.1	-5.1	7.8	8.6	56.4	54.1	57.2
14	Western Kentucky	Auto Bid	-8.1	-6.8	6.8	4.3	49.8	48.4	52.7
14	Harvard	Auto Bid	-7.0	-6.0	4.9	6.2	53.0	51.1	50.7
15	Montana State	Auto Bid	-7.6	-6.5	4.1	4.5	50.8	49.2	48.3
15	Furman	Auto Bid	-8.0	-7.2	3.8	3.7	49.6	47.3	47.3
15	James Madison	Auto Bid	-8.4	-7.6	3.0	3.4	48.6	46.4	45.6
15	St. Thomas (MN)	Auto Bid	-9.2	-8.2	3.1	2.8	46.6	45.0	45.4
15	Howard	Auto Bid	-7.0	-6.4	1.4	5.1	52.4	49.6	43.9
15	Merrimack College	Auto Bid	-8.4	-7.7	1.8	3.4	48.6	46.2	43.6
16	Tennessee State	Auto Bid	-6.7	-6.0	0.8	6.0	53.6	50.9	43.5
16	Central Arkansas	Auto Bid	-9.4	-8.4	1.3	2.6	46.2	44.6	42.2
16	Wright State	Auto Bid	-10.7	-9.7	2.4	-0.7	41.7	40.2	42.1
16	Vermont	Auto Bid	-9.6	-8.9	0.8	1.8	45.3	43.2	40.9
16	Queens (NC)	Auto Bid	-10.6	-9.4	0.9	0.6	42.6	41.5	40.3
16	American	Auto Bid	-10.0	-9.0	0.5	1.3	44.1	42.8	40.1
16	Bethune-Cookman	Auto Bid	-11.1	-9.6	-0.2	-0.5	40.9	40.4	37.7
16	LIU	Auto Bid	-13.5	-12.3	-2.7	-5.0	33.5	32.8	30.7
Out	TCU	First 4 Out	-3.1	-0.3	10.7	16.6	66.9	67.8	67.2
Out	Oklahoma State	First 4 Out	-3.3	-0.3	11.9	16.4	66.5	67.6	69.1
Out	Utah State	First 4 Out	-2.9	-0.5	13.6	16.1	67.1	67.1	71.8
Out	Minnesota	First 4 Out	-4.2	-1.2	10.5	15.1	63.9	65.2	65.8
Out	SMU	Next 4 Out	-4.0	-1.2	11.5	15.0	64.3	65.1	67.5
Out	Xavier	Next 4 Out	-4.4	-1.4	10.8	14.7	63.2	64.7	66.1
Out	Saint Louis	Next 4 Out	-3.7	-1.5	13.4	14.4	64.4	64.3	70.4
Out	Oregon	Next 4 Out	-4.6	-1.5	10.2	14.0	62.4	64.0	64.7

NCAA tournament projections based on 1,000 season simulations using composite ratings.

How the field is set: The 44 at-large teams with the highest TWV 50 make the field, joining the 32 automatic bids. Teams are then seeded by a blend of 65% TWV and 35% rating. Seeds 1–4 use TWV 30, seeds 5–11 use TWV 50, and seeds 12–16 use TWV 200. This provided the closest match to the actual field and seeds over the past 2 seasons.

Proj Rtg blends today's rating with how the team projects to play the rest of the season, weighted by games remaining.

Blend 30 / 50 / 200 = 65% that TWV + 35% rating, scaled so the top team is 100 and the bottom is 0. Each seed tier is ordered on its own blend; play-in pairs share a slot, so a pair can sit just out of blend order.

TWV and blend used to seed the team (TWV 50 for teams outside the field)

Featured in Bracket Matrix Blog. Bracket Matrix site here.

Team secured auto bid

Potential Multi-Bid Conferences

14 teams

12 teams

9 teams

8 teams

6 teams

1 team

F4O

N4O

F4O

N4O

F4O

N4O

Conferences with multiple teams projected to be in the NCAA Tournament or with bubble teams in first four out/next four out.

Seed	Team	Category	Proj TWV 30	Proj TWV 50decides bid	Proj TWV 200	Proj Rtg	Blend 30	Blend 50	Blend 200
1	Florida	Auto Bid	8.2	11.5	23.4	34.3	100.0	100.0	100.0
1	Duke	Auto Bid	7.8	10.8	22.9	33.3	98.7	98.1	98.6
1	Illinois	Auto Bid	6.8	10.0	22.2	31.2	95.4	95.5	96.0
1	Arizona	Auto Bid	6.0	9.2	20.5	29.9	93.1	93.1	92.3
2	Houston	At Large	5.6	8.8	21.6	29.5	92.0	92.1	93.8
2	Kansas	At Large	5.3	8.5	20.8	28.9	91.1	91.3	92.2
2	Connecticut	Auto Bid	4.3	7.6	18.7	27.7	88.4	88.8	87.9
2	Michigan State	At Large	4.2	7.2	19.1	27.3	87.9	87.9	88.3
3	Iowa State	At Large	4.2	7.1	18.2	27.3	87.9	87.8	86.7
3	Alabama	At Large	3.8	7.2	18.9	27.6	87.2	88.0	88.1
3	Gonzaga	Auto Bid	3.5	6.3	20.7	25.8	85.7	85.5	90.0
3	Louisville	At Large	3.3	6.4	18.5	25.9	85.2	85.6	86.4
4	Texas Tech	At Large	3.2	6.1	16.2	25.3	84.7	84.8	82.1
4	Michigan	At Large	2.8	6.2	17.7	25.8	84.3	85.2	84.9
4	St. John's	At Large	2.9	6.2	19.2	25.5	84.3	85.0	87.3
4	Virginia	At Large	2.8	5.7	17.4	25.0	83.8	83.7	83.9
5	Tennessee	At Large	2.4	5.6	16.3	24.8	82.9	83.5	81.9
5	Texas	At Large	2.5	5.5	15.6	24.7	83.0	83.3	80.5
5	Miami	At Large	2.3	5.1	16.5	24.3	82.3	82.3	82.0
5	Nebraska	At Large	1.7	4.8	16.4	23.5	80.6	81.2	81.3
6	Arkansas	At Large	1.3	4.1	14.4	22.9	79.4	79.7	77.4
6	Vanderbilt	At Large	1.2	4.0	14.6	22.8	79.2	79.4	77.7
6	Purdue	At Large	0.7	3.9	16.6	22.4	78.1	79.0	80.9
6	Kentucky	At Large	1.0	3.9	14.0	22.4	78.5	79.0	76.5
7	UCLA	At Large	0.8	3.8	15.7	22.2	78.0	78.6	79.2
7	Ohio State	At Large	0.8	3.8	15.0	22.0	78.0	78.4	77.9
7	BYU	At Large	0.4	3.4	16.2	21.6	76.9	77.5	79.7
7	Auburn	At Large	0.1	3.2	14.0	21.4	76.2	77.1	75.8
8	Oklahoma	At Large	0.3	3.2	13.7	21.2	76.5	76.9	75.2
8	Texas A&M	At Large	0.1	3.1	13.9	21.1	76.0	76.8	75.4
8	Villanova	At Large	-0.1	3.0	15.0	20.9	75.4	76.3	77.2
8	Marquette	At Large	-0.5	2.7	14.7	20.5	74.6	75.6	76.4
9	Baylor	At Large	-0.9	2.1	12.9	19.7	73.3	74.0	72.9
9	Georgia	At Large	-0.9	1.8	12.1	19.6	73.1	73.5	71.5
9	Cincinnati	At Large	-1.1	1.8	14.2	19.6	72.7	73.4	75.0
9	USC	At Large	-1.4	1.7	14.6	19.0	71.8	72.9	75.3
10	Indiana	At Large	-1.7	1.5	13.4	18.9	71.2	72.5	73.1
10	Creighton	At Large	-1.9	1.4	13.7	18.7	70.7	72.2	73.6
10	Wisconsin	Play-In Game	-1.7	1.4	13.5	18.6	70.9	72.1	73.3
10	Missouri	Play-In Game	-1.7	1.3	10.9	18.6	71.0	71.9	68.8
10	North Carolina	Play-In Game	-2.4	0.6	13.5	17.7	68.9	70.1	72.6
10	North Carolina State	Play-In Game	-2.1	0.5	13.8	17.6	69.6	70.0	73.1
11	West Virginia	Play-In Game	-2.5	0.5	11.8	17.6	68.9	69.9	69.8
11	LSU	Play-In Game	-2.5	0.5	11.4	17.5	68.8	69.7	69.0
11	Grand Canyon	Auto Bid	-1.5	0.5	14.2	17.5	70.8	69.8	73.8
11	Clemson	Play-In Game	-2.7	0.3	13.4	17.4	68.3	69.4	72.3
11	Iowa	Play-In Game	-2.8	0.3	11.4	17.4	68.1	69.3	68.9
11	Maryland	Last 4 In	-2.9	0.2	11.7	17.2	67.6	69.1	69.2
11	Providence	Last 4 In	-3.1	0.1	12.8	16.9	67.1	68.7	70.9
12	Ole Miss	Last 4 In	-3.0	0.0	10.9	16.8	67.4	68.5	67.7
12	Virginia Tech	Last 4 In	-3.1	-0.1	13.2	16.7	67.1	68.2	71.5
12	VCU	Auto Bid	-2.7	-0.3	14.2	16.4	67.8	67.6	73.1
12	Saint Mary's	Auto Bid	-6.0	-4.0	11.5	10.3	57.5	57.2	64.5
12	Wichita State	Auto Bid	-5.7	-3.8	10.8	10.8	58.4	58.0	63.7
13	High Point	Auto Bid	-2.0	-1.1	9.1	15.1	68.4	65.5	63.5
13	Akron	Auto Bid	-5.8	-4.6	9.1	9.6	57.6	55.7	60.0
13	McNeese State	Auto Bid	-4.5	-3.5	8.0	11.7	61.4	58.9	59.5
13	UIC	Auto Bid	-6.5	-5.1	9.0	8.6	55.5	54.2	59.2
14	UC Santa Barbara	Auto Bid	-6.6	-5.4	8.2	7.9	54.9	53.3	57.4
14	UNCW	Auto Bid	-6.1	-5.1	7.8	8.6	56.4	54.1	57.2
14	Western Kentucky	Auto Bid	-8.1	-6.8	6.8	4.3	49.8	48.4	52.7
14	Harvard	Auto Bid	-7.0	-6.0	4.9	6.2	53.0	51.1	50.7
15	Montana State	Auto Bid	-7.6	-6.5	4.1	4.5	50.8	49.2	48.3
15	Furman	Auto Bid	-8.0	-7.2	3.8	3.7	49.6	47.3	47.3
15	James Madison	Auto Bid	-8.4	-7.6	3.0	3.4	48.6	46.4	45.6
15	St. Thomas (MN)	Auto Bid	-9.2	-8.2	3.1	2.8	46.6	45.0	45.4
15	Howard	Auto Bid	-7.0	-6.4	1.4	5.1	52.4	49.6	43.9
15	Merrimack College	Auto Bid	-8.4	-7.7	1.8	3.4	48.6	46.2	43.6
16	Tennessee State	Auto Bid	-6.7	-6.0	0.8	6.0	53.6	50.9	43.5
16	Central Arkansas	Auto Bid	-9.4	-8.4	1.3	2.6	46.2	44.6	42.2
16	Wright State	Auto Bid	-10.7	-9.7	2.4	-0.7	41.7	40.2	42.1
16	Vermont	Auto Bid	-9.6	-8.9	0.8	1.8	45.3	43.2	40.9
16	Queens (NC)	Auto Bid	-10.6	-9.4	0.9	0.6	42.6	41.5	40.3
16	American	Auto Bid	-10.0	-9.0	0.5	1.3	44.1	42.8	40.1
16	Bethune-Cookman	Auto Bid	-11.1	-9.6	-0.2	-0.5	40.9	40.4	37.7
16	LIU	Auto Bid	-13.5	-12.3	-2.7	-5.0	33.5	32.8	30.7
Out	TCU	First 4 Out	-3.1	-0.3	10.7	16.6	66.9	67.8	67.2
Out	Oklahoma State	First 4 Out	-3.3	-0.3	11.9	16.4	66.5	67.6	69.1
Out	Utah State	First 4 Out	-2.9	-0.5	13.6	16.1	67.1	67.1	71.8
Out	Minnesota	First 4 Out	-4.2	-1.2	10.5	15.1	63.9	65.2	65.8
Out	SMU	Next 4 Out	-4.0	-1.2	11.5	15.0	64.3	65.1	67.5
Out	Xavier	Next 4 Out	-4.4	-1.4	10.8	14.7	63.2	64.7	66.1
Out	Saint Louis	Next 4 Out	-3.7	-1.5	13.4	14.4	64.4	64.3	70.4
Out	Oregon	Next 4 Out	-4.6	-1.5	10.2	14.0	62.4	64.0	64.7