Basketball Tournament Projections

NCAA tournament projections based on 1,000 season simulations using composite ratings.

How the field is set: The 44 at-large teams with the highest TWV 50 make the field, joining the 32 automatic bids. Teams are then seeded by a blend of 65% TWV and 35% rating. Seeds 1–4 use TWV 30, seeds 5–11 use TWV 50, and seeds 12–16 use TWV 200. This provided the closest match to the actual field and seeds over the past 2 seasons.

Proj Rtg blends today's rating with how the team projects to play the rest of the season, weighted by games remaining.

Blend 30 / 50 / 200 = 65% that TWV + 35% rating, scaled so the top team is 100 and the bottom is 0. Each seed tier is ordered on its own blend; play-in pairs share a slot, so a pair can sit just out of blend order.

TWV and blend used to seed the team (TWV 50 for teams outside the field)

Featured in Bracket Matrix Blog. Bracket Matrix site here.

Team secured auto bid

Conferences with multiple teams projected to be in the NCAA Tournament or with bubble teams in first four out/next four out.

Seed	Team	Category	Proj TWV 30	Proj TWV 50decides bid	Proj TWV 200	Proj Rtg	Blend 30	Blend 50	Blend 200
1	Duke	Auto Bid	8.97	12.27	23.59	36.99	100.0	100.0	100.0
1	Illinois	Auto Bid	8.20	11.74	22.96	34.91	97.3	97.9	97.7
1	Florida	Auto Bid	7.99	11.36	21.98	34.07	96.5	96.7	95.5
1	Arizona	Auto Bid	7.66	10.87	20.73	34.06	95.8	95.8	93.2
2	Michigan	At Large	6.35	9.61	18.90	31.60	91.8	92.0	88.6
2	Houston	At Large	5.88	9.02	19.04	30.98	90.5	90.6	88.5
2	Connecticut	Auto Bid	5.36	8.82	19.53	29.31	88.5	89.3	88.4
2	Michigan State	At Large	4.76	7.66	16.56	28.91	87.1	86.9	82.8
3	St. John's	At Large	4.37	7.70	19.87	29.08	86.3	87.0	88.9
3	Iowa State	At Large	4.36	7.31	17.12	28.64	86.1	86.1	83.7
3	Alabama	At Large	4.21	7.72	18.21	29.10	86.0	87.1	85.9
3	Kansas	At Large	3.71	6.88	18.00	27.11	83.9	84.4	84.5
4	Louisville	At Large	3.52	6.68	17.41	27.00	83.5	84.0	83.3
4	Tennessee	At Large	3.48	6.71	16.19	27.10	83.5	84.1	81.2
4	Virginia	At Large	3.44	6.62	17.67	26.93	83.3	83.8	83.8
4	Purdue	At Large	3.14	6.48	16.81	26.61	82.5	83.4	82.0
5	Texas Tech	At Large	3.11	6.03	14.86	26.32	82.3	82.4	78.3
5	Nebraska	At Large	2.52	5.67	15.37	26.12	80.9	81.6	79.2
5	Arkansas	At Large	2.18	5.14	13.30	25.28	79.8	80.1	74.9
5	Vanderbilt	At Large	1.92	5.05	15.09	24.82	79.0	79.7	77.9
6	Miami	At Large	1.93	4.76	14.72	24.51	78.9	79.0	77.1
6	Texas	At Large	1.50	4.68	13.58	24.20	77.8	78.6	74.9
6	Kentucky	At Large	1.34	4.64	14.08	23.55	77.2	78.2	75.4
6	Ohio State	At Large	1.30	4.41	14.80	23.08	76.8	77.5	76.5
7	UCLA	At Large	1.00	3.92	13.51	23.07	76.2	76.6	74.1
7	Villanova	At Large	0.44	3.80	15.37	23.03	75.0	76.3	77.5
7	BYU	At Large	0.59	3.67	15.03	22.10	74.8	75.6	76.3
7	Auburn	At Large	0.07	3.17	12.47	21.69	73.5	74.4	71.5
8	Georgia	At Large	0.14	2.88	11.75	21.20	73.4	73.6	69.9
8	Gonzaga	Auto Bid	1.71	2.83	6.72	21.15	76.8	73.5	60.7
8	Oklahoma	At Large	-0.50	2.74	12.62	20.57	71.8	73.0	71.1
8	Wisconsin	At Large	-0.64	2.67	13.43	20.24	71.3	72.7	72.4
9	Iowa	At Large	-0.75	2.51	12.93	20.03	71.0	72.3	71.4
9	Texas A&M	At Large	-1.07	2.34	12.55	19.94	70.2	71.9	70.7
9	North Carolina State	At Large	-0.70	2.17	14.29	19.58	70.9	71.4	73.6
9	Baylor	At Large	-1.00	1.97	11.73	19.53	70.2	71.0	68.9
10	LSU	At Large	-1.36	1.93	12.46	19.20	69.3	70.7	70.1
10	North Carolina	At Large	-1.75	1.67	13.69	18.70	68.2	70.0	72.0
10	Indiana	Play-In Game	-1.79	1.63	12.52	18.67	68.1	69.9	69.9
10	Clemson	Play-In Game	-1.37	1.63	13.35	18.56	68.9	69.8	71.3
10	Cincinnati	Play-In Game	-1.59	1.40	12.15	18.54	68.5	69.4	69.2
10	Marquette	Play-In Game	-2.07	1.30	12.68	18.30	67.3	69.0	70.0
11	Missouri	Play-In Game	-2.25	1.02	10.03	18.15	66.8	68.4	65.1
11	TCU	Play-In Game	-2.05	0.86	10.73	17.82	67.1	67.9	66.2
11	Utah State	Play-In Game	-0.69	0.45	5.49	17.72	70.0	67.1	56.6
11	Virginia Tech	Play-In Game	-2.95	0.41	12.88	17.64	65.1	67.0	70.0
11	USC	Last 4 In	-2.97	0.37	10.88	17.11	64.8	66.6	66.1
11	Creighton	Last 4 In	-3.21	0.08	10.88	16.37	63.9	65.7	65.7
11	VCU	Auto Bid	-0.62	0.26	4.42	16.84	69.7	66.3	54.2
12	Grand Canyon	Auto Bid	-1.93	0.19	12.77	16.73	66.8	66.1	69.3
12	Saint Mary's	Auto Bid	-3.44	-1.23	13.48	13.32	61.9	61.6	68.7
12	SMU	Last 4 In	-2.95	0.06	11.81	16.37	64.5	65.6	67.4
12	West Virginia	Last 4 In	-2.98	0.02	9.95	16.32	64.4	65.5	64.0
12	High Point	Auto Bid	-2.30	-1.25	8.54	13.21	64.3	61.5	59.7
13	McNeese State	Auto Bid	-3.20	-2.10	8.89	10.36	61.0	58.3	58.8
13	Akron	Auto Bid	-4.36	-3.20	8.32	6.41	56.6	54.1	55.6
13	Wichita State	Auto Bid	-1.77	-0.85	4.47	14.35	66.0	62.8	52.9
13	UIC	Auto Bid	-5.57	-4.05	7.34	4.42	53.0	51.5	52.7
14	UNCW	Auto Bid	-5.13	-4.19	6.59	3.97	53.7	51.0	51.1
14	UC Santa Barbara	Auto Bid	-5.61	-4.49	6.09	3.31	52.4	50.0	49.8
14	Liberty	Auto Bid	-7.73	-6.38	5.62	-0.52	46.0	44.4	46.9
14	Harvard	Auto Bid	-6.89	-5.72	4.68	1.35	48.7	46.6	46.2
15	St. Thomas (MN)	Auto Bid	-7.30	-6.15	4.70	-0.21	47.1	45.0	45.4
15	Howard	Auto Bid	-2.06	-1.86	0.04	11.15	63.8	59.2	43.2
15	Montana State	Auto Bid	-6.92	-5.97	3.17	0.48	48.2	45.7	43.0
15	Wright State	Auto Bid	-7.09	-6.32	2.82	-0.27	47.5	44.6	42.0
15	Arkansas State	Auto Bid	-7.16	-6.37	2.20	-0.40	47.3	44.5	40.8
15	Central Arkansas	Auto Bid	-8.20	-7.03	2.16	-1.45	44.6	42.6	40.1
16	East Tennessee State	Auto Bid	-8.11	-7.19	2.01	-1.45	44.7	42.3	39.8
16	Merrimack College	Auto Bid	-8.09	-7.32	1.93	-1.72	44.6	41.9	39.5
16	Tennessee State	Auto Bid	-6.66	-5.91	0.40	0.64	48.9	45.9	38.1
16	Bethune-Cookman	Auto Bid	-6.32	-5.15	-0.46	2.49	50.5	48.3	37.5
16	Queens (NC)	Auto Bid	-10.24	-8.93	0.79	-3.57	39.2	37.9	36.5
16	American	Auto Bid	-10.47	-9.23	0.02	-3.70	38.6	37.2	35.0
16	Vermont	Auto Bid	-10.16	-9.32	-0.13	-3.84	39.2	37.0	34.7
16	LIU	Auto Bid	-12.48	-11.16	-2.04	-6.71	32.8	31.9	29.6
Out	Saint Louis	First 4 Out	-1.28	-0.07	6.10	16.23	68.0	65.3	56.9
Out	San Diego State	First 4 Out	-0.97	-0.27	2.74	15.79	68.4	64.7	50.6
Out	New Mexico	First 4 Out	-2.42	-0.33	11.90	15.63	65.3	64.5	67.1
Out	Providence	First 4 Out	-3.71	-0.47	10.83	15.61	62.5	64.2	65.2
Out	Ole Miss	Next 4 Out	-3.48	-0.48	8.51	14.78	62.6	63.8	60.5
Out	Tulsa	Next 4 Out	-1.14	-0.70	2.40	14.44	67.4	63.2	49.2
Out	Boise State	Next 4 Out	-1.36	-0.75	2.71	14.37	66.9	63.0	49.8
Out	UCF	Next 4 Out	-3.81	-0.86	9.61	14.34	61.7	62.8	62.3

Seed

Team

Conf

Category

Proj TWV 30

Proj TWV 50decides bid

Proj TWV 200

Proj Rtg

Blend 30

Blend 50

Blend 200

Duke

Auto Bid

8.97

12.27

23.59

36.99

100.0

Illinois

Auto Bid

8.20

11.74

22.96

34.91

97.3

97.9

97.7

Florida

Auto Bid

7.99

11.36

21.98

34.07

96.5

96.7

95.5

Arizona

Auto Bid

7.66

10.87

20.73

34.06

95.8

93.2

Michigan

At Large

6.35

9.61

18.90

31.60

91.8

92.0

88.6

Houston

At Large

5.88

9.02

19.04

30.98

90.5

90.6

88.5

Connecticut

Auto Bid

5.36

8.82

19.53

29.31

88.5

89.3

88.4

Michigan State

At Large

4.76

7.66

16.56

28.91

87.1

86.9

82.8

St. John's

At Large

4.37

7.70

19.87

29.08

86.3

87.0

88.9

Iowa State

At Large

4.36

7.31

17.12

28.64

86.1

83.7

Alabama

At Large

4.21

7.72

18.21

29.10

86.0

87.1

85.9

Kansas

At Large

3.71

6.88

18.00

27.11

83.9

84.4

84.5

Louisville

At Large

3.52

6.68

17.41

27.00

83.5

84.0

83.3

Tennessee

At Large

3.48

6.71

16.19

27.10

83.5

84.1

81.2

Virginia

At Large

3.44

6.62

17.67

26.93

83.3

83.8

Purdue

At Large

3.14

6.48

16.81

26.61

82.5

83.4

82.0

Texas Tech

At Large

3.11

6.03

14.86

26.32

82.3

82.4

78.3

Nebraska

At Large

2.52

5.67

15.37

26.12

80.9

81.6

79.2

Arkansas

At Large

2.18

5.14

13.30

25.28

79.8

80.1

74.9

Vanderbilt

At Large

1.92

5.05

15.09

24.82

79.0

79.7

77.9

Miami

At Large

1.93

4.76

14.72

24.51

78.9

79.0

77.1

Texas

At Large

1.50

4.68

13.58

24.20

77.8

78.6

74.9

Kentucky

At Large

1.34

4.64

14.08

23.55

77.2

78.2

75.4

Ohio State

At Large

1.30

4.41

14.80

23.08

76.8

77.5

76.5

UCLA

At Large

1.00

3.92

13.51

23.07

76.2

76.6

74.1

Villanova

At Large

0.44

3.80

15.37

23.03

75.0

76.3

77.5

BYU

At Large

0.59

3.67

15.03

22.10

74.8

75.6

76.3

Auburn

At Large

0.07

3.17

12.47

21.69

73.5

74.4

71.5

Georgia

At Large

0.14

2.88

11.75

21.20

73.4

73.6

69.9

Gonzaga

Auto Bid

1.71

2.83

6.72

21.15

76.8

73.5

60.7

Oklahoma

At Large

-0.50

2.74

12.62

20.57

71.8

73.0

71.1

Wisconsin

At Large

-0.64

2.67

13.43

20.24

71.3

72.7

72.4

Iowa

At Large

-0.75

2.51

12.93

20.03

71.0

72.3

71.4

Texas A&M

At Large

-1.07

2.34

12.55

19.94

70.2

71.9

70.7

North Carolina State

At Large

-0.70

2.17

14.29

19.58

70.9

71.4

73.6

Baylor

At Large

-1.00

1.97

11.73

19.53

70.2

71.0

68.9

LSU

At Large

-1.36

1.93

12.46

19.20

69.3

70.7

70.1

North Carolina

At Large

-1.75

1.67

13.69

18.70

68.2

70.0

72.0

Indiana

Play-In Game

-1.79

1.63

12.52

18.67

68.1

69.9

Clemson

Play-In Game

-1.37

1.63

13.35

18.56

68.9

69.8

71.3

Cincinnati

Play-In Game

-1.59

1.40

12.15

18.54

68.5

69.4

69.2

Marquette

Play-In Game

-2.07

1.30

12.68

18.30

67.3

69.0

70.0

Missouri

Play-In Game

-2.25

1.02

10.03

18.15

66.8

68.4

65.1

TCU

Play-In Game

-2.05

0.86

10.73

17.82

67.1

67.9

66.2

Utah State

Play-In Game

-0.69

0.45

5.49

17.72

70.0

67.1

56.6

Virginia Tech

Play-In Game

-2.95

0.41

12.88

17.64

65.1

67.0

70.0

USC

Last 4 In

-2.97

0.37

10.88

17.11

64.8

66.6

66.1

Creighton

Last 4 In

-3.21

0.08

10.88

16.37

63.9

65.7

VCU

Auto Bid

-0.62

0.26

4.42

16.84

69.7

66.3

54.2

Grand Canyon

Auto Bid

-1.93

0.19

12.77

16.73

66.8

66.1

69.3

Saint Mary's

Auto Bid

-3.44

-1.23

13.48

13.32

61.9

61.6

68.7

SMU

Last 4 In

-2.95

0.06

11.81

16.37

64.5

65.6

67.4

West Virginia

Last 4 In

-2.98

0.02

9.95

16.32

64.4

65.5

64.0

High Point

Auto Bid

-2.30

-1.25

8.54

13.21

64.3

61.5

59.7

McNeese State

Auto Bid

-3.20

-2.10

8.89

10.36

61.0

58.3

58.8

Akron

Auto Bid

-4.36

-3.20

8.32

6.41

56.6

54.1

55.6

Wichita State

Auto Bid

-1.77

-0.85

4.47

14.35

66.0

62.8

52.9

UIC

Auto Bid

-5.57

-4.05

7.34

4.42

53.0

51.5

52.7

UNCW

Auto Bid

-5.13

-4.19

6.59

3.97

53.7

51.0

51.1

UC Santa Barbara

Auto Bid

-5.61

-4.49

6.09

3.31

52.4

50.0

49.8

Liberty

Auto Bid

-7.73

-6.38

5.62

-0.52

46.0

44.4

46.9

Harvard

Auto Bid

-6.89

-5.72

4.68

1.35

48.7

46.6

46.2

St. Thomas (MN)

Auto Bid

-7.30

-6.15

4.70

-0.21

47.1

45.0

45.4

Howard

Auto Bid

-2.06

-1.86

0.04

11.15

63.8

59.2

43.2

Montana State

Auto Bid

-6.92

-5.97

3.17

0.48

48.2

45.7

43.0

Wright State

Auto Bid

-7.09

-6.32

2.82

-0.27

47.5

44.6

42.0

Arkansas State

Auto Bid

-7.16

-6.37

2.20

-0.40

47.3

44.5

40.8

Central Arkansas

Auto Bid

-8.20

-7.03

2.16

-1.45

44.6

42.6

40.1

East Tennessee State

Auto Bid

-8.11

-7.19

2.01

-1.45

44.7

42.3

39.8

Merrimack College

Auto Bid

-8.09

-7.32

1.93

-1.72

44.6

41.9

39.5

Tennessee State

Auto Bid

-6.66

-5.91

0.40

0.64

48.9

45.9

38.1

Bethune-Cookman

Auto Bid

-6.32

-5.15

-0.46

2.49

50.5

48.3

37.5

Queens (NC)

Auto Bid

-10.24

-8.93

0.79

-3.57

39.2

37.9

36.5

American

Auto Bid

-10.47

-9.23

0.02

-3.70

38.6

37.2

35.0

Vermont

Auto Bid

-10.16

-9.32

-0.13

-3.84

39.2

37.0

34.7

LIU

Auto Bid

-12.48

-11.16

-2.04

-6.71

32.8

31.9

29.6

Out

Saint Louis

First 4 Out

-1.28

-0.07

6.10

16.23

68.0

65.3

56.9

Out

San Diego State

First 4 Out

-0.97

-0.27

2.74

15.79

68.4

64.7

50.6

Out

New Mexico

First 4 Out

-2.42

-0.33

11.90

15.63

65.3

64.5

67.1

Out

Providence

First 4 Out

-3.71

-0.47

10.83

15.61

62.5

64.2

65.2

Out

Ole Miss

Next 4 Out

-3.48

-0.48

8.51

14.78

62.6

63.8

60.5

Out

Tulsa

Next 4 Out

-1.14

-0.70

2.40

14.44

67.4

63.2

49.2

Out

Boise State

Next 4 Out

-1.36

-0.75

2.71

14.37

66.9

63.0

49.8

Out

UCF

Next 4 Out

-3.81

-0.86

9.61

14.34

61.7

62.8

62.3

Basketball Tournament Projections

Basketball Tournament Projections

Potential Multi-Bid Conferences

Potential Multi-Bid Conferences