Basketball Tournament Projections

Seed	Team	Category	Record	Proj TWV 30	Proj TWV 50decides bid	Proj TWV 200	Proj Rtg	Blend 30	Blend 50	Blend 200
1	Florida	Auto Bid	3-0	9.3	11.7	23.5	33.4	100.0	100.0	100.0
1	Kansas	Auto Bid	3-0	7.8	10.2	22.8	31.9	96.1	96.0	97.7
1	Duke	Auto Bid	2-1	7.2	9.4	21.6	33.3	95.6	95.4	96.5
1	Houston	At Large	3-0	7.2	9.6	22.3	31.2	94.4	94.4	96.4
2	Illinois	Auto Bid	2-1	7.0	9.3	21.6	31.2	93.8	93.9	95.0
2	Michigan State	At Large	3-0	6.7	8.9	20.9	29.6	92.2	91.9	92.6
2	UConn	Auto Bid	3-0	6.0	8.4	20.0	28.4	90.1	90.3	90.2
2	Texas	At Large	3-0	4.5	6.7	17.0	28.0	86.6	86.6	84.5
3	Virginia	At Large	4-0	4.8	7.0	19.1	26.7	86.4	86.3	87.6
3	Gonzaga	Auto Bid	2-0	4.8	6.9	20.8	26.3	86.3	86.0	90.3
3	Texas Tech	At Large	3-0	4.5	6.7	16.9	25.7	85.3	85.2	83.0
3	Arizona	At Large	2-1	4.0	6.2	17.5	27.3	85.1	85.3	85.0
4	St. John's	At Large	3-0	4.0	6.4	19.8	26.7	84.8	85.3	88.8
4	Alabama	At Large	3-0	3.8	6.2	17.9	25.8	83.8	84.4	84.9
4	UCLA	At Large	3-0	3.9	6.2	18.3	25.0	83.6	83.8	85.1
4	Vanderbilt	At Large	3-0	3.8	5.9	16.8	25.1	83.4	83.3	82.3
5	Louisville	At Large	2-0	3.3	5.6	17.9	25.3	82.5	82.9	84.5
5	Nebraska	At Large	3-0	3.2	5.5	17.2	24.5	81.8	82.1	82.7
5	Michigan	At Large	2-1	2.5	4.9	16.7	24.0	80.0	80.7	81.4
5	Iowa State	At Large	2-1	2.3	4.4	15.6	24.9	80.2	80.3	80.0
6	Tennessee	At Large	2-0	2.3	4.6	15.3	23.5	79.3	79.7	78.5
6	LSU	At Large	3-0	2.4	4.6	15.7	23.4	79.4	79.6	79.2
6	Texas A&M	At Large	4-0	2.3	4.5	14.9	23.0	79.0	79.2	77.4
6	Miami	At Large	2-1	2.1	4.2	15.6	23.2	78.7	78.7	79.0
7	BYU	At Large	4-0	1.9	4.2	17.2	22.4	77.9	78.2	81.3
7	Auburn	At Large	2-0	0.8	3.1	13.9	21.7	75.1	75.6	74.8
7	Marquette	At Large	2-1	0.5	2.8	14.9	21.4	74.3	74.9	76.4
7	Baylor	At Large	3-0	0.6	2.7	13.8	21.0	74.2	74.4	74.1
8	USC	At Large	3-0	0.6	2.9	15.8	20.3	73.7	74.3	77.4
8	Missouri	At Large	2-1	0.3	2.5	12.3	21.3	73.8	74.2	71.7
8	Ole Miss	At Large	3-0	-0.2	2.0	13.2	19.8	71.8	72.2	72.2
8	Arkansas	At Large	2-1	-0.3	1.8	11.7	20.3	71.8	72.1	69.9
9	Xavier	At Large	3-0	-0.7	1.6	13.8	19.5	70.6	71.3	73.2
9	Ohio State	At Large	2-1	-0.7	1.4	12.6	19.6	70.6	71.0	71.1
9	Indiana	At Large	4-0	-0.7	1.6	13.9	18.8	70.0	70.8	72.8
9	Virginia Tech	At Large	3-0	-0.7	1.6	15.2	18.8	70.2	70.8	75.2
10	Villanova	At Large	2-1	-1.0	1.2	13.3	19.7	70.0	70.6	72.3
10	Kentucky	At Large	2-1	-1.0	1.1	11.2	19.1	69.6	70.1	68.2
10	Saint Louis	Auto Bid	3-0	-0.4	1.3	16.5	18.2	70.4	70.0	77.2
10	Purdue	Play-In Game	1-2	-1.6	0.8	13.6	19.7	68.9	69.9	73.0
10	West Virginia	Play-In Game	3-0	-1.1	1.1	12.7	18.7	69.3	69.8	70.6
11	Wisconsin	Play-In Game	3-0	-1.3	1.0	13.3	18.5	68.8	69.6	71.5
11	NC State	Play-In Game	3-0	-1.3	0.7	14.0	18.1	68.4	68.5	72.6
11	Cincinnati	Play-In Game	2-1	-1.7	0.5	13.2	18.6	68.0	68.5	71.6
11	North Carolina	Play-In Game	3-0	-1.7	0.6	13.8	17.8	67.5	68.2	72.0
11	Utah State	Play-In Game	3-0	-1.5	0.3	14.0	17.7	67.8	67.7	72.4
11	TCU	Play-In Game	3-0	-1.9	0.2	11.3	17.5	66.9	67.3	67.4
11	Minnesota	Last 4 In	4-0	-1.7	0.5	12.5	16.8	66.8	67.3	69.0
11	Oklahoma State	Last 4 In	2-1	-2.2	-0.0	12.4	17.3	66.2	66.8	69.2
12	Grand Canyon	Auto Bid	3-0	-1.4	0.1	13.7	17.2	67.7	66.9	71.4
12	Santa Clara	Auto Bid	4-0	-3.4	-1.8	14.2	13.1	61.0	60.5	69.6
12	Oregon	Last 4 In	3-0	-2.2	0.0	11.9	17.1	66.0	66.8	68.1
12	Iowa	Last 4 In	2-1	-2.4	-0.2	11.0	17.6	65.7	66.5	66.9
12	Wichita State	Auto Bid	2-1	-4.6	-3.2	11.6	12.5	58.1	57.5	64.6
13	UC Santa Barbara	Auto Bid	3-0	-3.6	-2.7	10.9	12.0	60.0	58.2	63.0
13	Murray State	Auto Bid	3-0	-4.5	-3.4	11.1	11.2	57.4	56.3	62.8
13	High Point	Auto Bid	4-0	-1.1	-0.5	9.0	15.9	67.5	64.9	62.2
13	Akron	Auto Bid	2-0	-4.5	-3.6	10.1	10.9	57.4	55.6	60.8
14	UNCW	Auto Bid	3-0	-4.6	-3.8	9.1	10.1	56.6	54.6	58.5
14	McNeese	Auto Bid	2-1	-4.2	-3.5	8.0	12.0	58.7	56.6	57.6
14	Wright State	Auto Bid	3-0	-4.6	-4.0	7.7	9.4	56.1	53.9	55.4
14	Furman	Auto Bid	4-0	-5.8	-5.2	6.4	7.0	52.2	50.0	51.4
15	Western Kentucky	Auto Bid	3-1	-8.5	-7.6	5.8	4.1	44.8	43.4	48.4
15	Montana State	Auto Bid	1-2	-6.7	-5.9	4.3	7.5	50.6	48.9	48.1
15	Harvard	Auto Bid	2-1	-7.9	-7.2	3.4	5.5	46.8	45.1	45.0
15	James Madison	Auto Bid	1-2	-8.4	-7.8	3.6	3.7	44.7	42.9	44.3
15	Central Arkansas	Auto Bid	2-1	-8.6	-7.8	2.1	1.3	42.9	41.2	39.9
15	Howard	Auto Bid	2-2	-8.5	-8.0	0.7	4.4	44.9	42.9	39.5
16	St. Thomas (MN)	Auto Bid	2-2	-9.8	-9.0	1.9	0.9	40.2	38.6	39.4
16	American	Auto Bid	1-2	-9.0	-8.2	1.2	1.2	41.9	40.4	38.2
16	Queens (NC)	Auto Bid	2-2	-9.6	-8.8	1.5	0.1	39.9	38.5	38.1
16	Siena	Auto Bid	2-1	-10.1	-9.4	1.3	-0.7	38.5	36.8	37.2
16	Vermont	Auto Bid	1-2	-9.5	-9.0	0.4	1.6	41.1	39.1	37.1
16	Tennessee State	Auto Bid	2-1	-7.7	-7.2	-0.3	3.1	45.7	43.5	36.8
16	Bethune-Cookman	Auto Bid	0-4	-10.7	-9.6	-0.1	0.8	38.2	37.5	35.5
16	LIU	Auto Bid	0-4	-13.8	-12.9	-3.5	-2.6	29.6	28.8	27.1
Out	Georgia	First 4 Out	3-0	-2.6	-0.6	9.9	16.2	64.4	64.9	63.9
Out	Mississippi State	First 4 Out	3-0	-2.9	-0.7	10.8	16.1	63.8	64.7	65.5
Out	New Mexico	First 4 Out	3-0	-2.3	-0.7	13.8	15.7	64.8	64.3	70.7
Out	Florida State	First 4 Out	2-1	-3.0	-1.0	11.0	15.6	63.5	63.6	65.6
Out	Providence	Next 4 Out	2-1	-3.5	-1.2	11.6	15.6	62.3	63.5	66.7
Out	Arizona State	Next 4 Out	3-0	-3.3	-1.3	11.0	14.5	62.0	62.4	64.7
Out	VCU	Next 4 Out	2-1	-3.3	-1.5	13.0	15.4	62.7	62.6	69.0
Out	Notre Dame	Next 4 Out	4-0	-3.7	-1.6	10.6	13.4	60.6	61.1	63.2

NCAA tournament projections based on 1,000 season simulations using composite ratings.

How the field is set: The 44 at-large teams with the highest TWV 50 make the field, joining the 32 automatic bids. Teams are then seeded by a blend of 65% TWV and 35% rating. Seeds 1–4 use TWV 30, seeds 5–11 use TWV 50, and seeds 12–16 use TWV 200. This provided the closest match to the actual field and seeds over the past 2 seasons.

Proj Rtg blends today's rating with how the team projects to play the rest of the season, weighted by games remaining.

Blend 30 / 50 / 200 = 65% that TWV + 35% rating, scaled so the top team is 100 and the bottom is 0. Each seed tier is ordered on its own blend; play-in pairs share a slot, so a pair can sit just out of blend order.

TWV and blend used to seed the team (TWV 50 for teams outside the field)

Featured in Bracket Matrix Blog. Bracket Matrix site here.

Team secured auto bid

Potential Multi-Bid Conferences

13 teams

12 teams

11 teams

7 teams

5 teams

2 teams

1 team

F4O

N4O

F4O

N4O

F4O

Conferences with multiple teams projected to be in the NCAA Tournament or with bubble teams in first four out/next four out.

Seed	Team	Category	Record	Proj TWV 30	Proj TWV 50decides bid	Proj TWV 200	Proj Rtg	Blend 30	Blend 50	Blend 200
1	Florida	Auto Bid	3-0	9.3	11.7	23.5	33.4	100.0	100.0	100.0
1	Kansas	Auto Bid	3-0	7.8	10.2	22.8	31.9	96.1	96.0	97.7
1	Duke	Auto Bid	2-1	7.2	9.4	21.6	33.3	95.6	95.4	96.5
1	Houston	At Large	3-0	7.2	9.6	22.3	31.2	94.4	94.4	96.4
2	Illinois	Auto Bid	2-1	7.0	9.3	21.6	31.2	93.8	93.9	95.0
2	Michigan State	At Large	3-0	6.7	8.9	20.9	29.6	92.2	91.9	92.6
2	UConn	Auto Bid	3-0	6.0	8.4	20.0	28.4	90.1	90.3	90.2
2	Texas	At Large	3-0	4.5	6.7	17.0	28.0	86.6	86.6	84.5
3	Virginia	At Large	4-0	4.8	7.0	19.1	26.7	86.4	86.3	87.6
3	Gonzaga	Auto Bid	2-0	4.8	6.9	20.8	26.3	86.3	86.0	90.3
3	Texas Tech	At Large	3-0	4.5	6.7	16.9	25.7	85.3	85.2	83.0
3	Arizona	At Large	2-1	4.0	6.2	17.5	27.3	85.1	85.3	85.0
4	St. John's	At Large	3-0	4.0	6.4	19.8	26.7	84.8	85.3	88.8
4	Alabama	At Large	3-0	3.8	6.2	17.9	25.8	83.8	84.4	84.9
4	UCLA	At Large	3-0	3.9	6.2	18.3	25.0	83.6	83.8	85.1
4	Vanderbilt	At Large	3-0	3.8	5.9	16.8	25.1	83.4	83.3	82.3
5	Louisville	At Large	2-0	3.3	5.6	17.9	25.3	82.5	82.9	84.5
5	Nebraska	At Large	3-0	3.2	5.5	17.2	24.5	81.8	82.1	82.7
5	Michigan	At Large	2-1	2.5	4.9	16.7	24.0	80.0	80.7	81.4
5	Iowa State	At Large	2-1	2.3	4.4	15.6	24.9	80.2	80.3	80.0
6	Tennessee	At Large	2-0	2.3	4.6	15.3	23.5	79.3	79.7	78.5
6	LSU	At Large	3-0	2.4	4.6	15.7	23.4	79.4	79.6	79.2
6	Texas A&M	At Large	4-0	2.3	4.5	14.9	23.0	79.0	79.2	77.4
6	Miami	At Large	2-1	2.1	4.2	15.6	23.2	78.7	78.7	79.0
7	BYU	At Large	4-0	1.9	4.2	17.2	22.4	77.9	78.2	81.3
7	Auburn	At Large	2-0	0.8	3.1	13.9	21.7	75.1	75.6	74.8
7	Marquette	At Large	2-1	0.5	2.8	14.9	21.4	74.3	74.9	76.4
7	Baylor	At Large	3-0	0.6	2.7	13.8	21.0	74.2	74.4	74.1
8	USC	At Large	3-0	0.6	2.9	15.8	20.3	73.7	74.3	77.4
8	Missouri	At Large	2-1	0.3	2.5	12.3	21.3	73.8	74.2	71.7
8	Ole Miss	At Large	3-0	-0.2	2.0	13.2	19.8	71.8	72.2	72.2
8	Arkansas	At Large	2-1	-0.3	1.8	11.7	20.3	71.8	72.1	69.9
9	Xavier	At Large	3-0	-0.7	1.6	13.8	19.5	70.6	71.3	73.2
9	Ohio State	At Large	2-1	-0.7	1.4	12.6	19.6	70.6	71.0	71.1
9	Indiana	At Large	4-0	-0.7	1.6	13.9	18.8	70.0	70.8	72.8
9	Virginia Tech	At Large	3-0	-0.7	1.6	15.2	18.8	70.2	70.8	75.2
10	Villanova	At Large	2-1	-1.0	1.2	13.3	19.7	70.0	70.6	72.3
10	Kentucky	At Large	2-1	-1.0	1.1	11.2	19.1	69.6	70.1	68.2
10	Saint Louis	Auto Bid	3-0	-0.4	1.3	16.5	18.2	70.4	70.0	77.2
10	Purdue	Play-In Game	1-2	-1.6	0.8	13.6	19.7	68.9	69.9	73.0
10	West Virginia	Play-In Game	3-0	-1.1	1.1	12.7	18.7	69.3	69.8	70.6
11	Wisconsin	Play-In Game	3-0	-1.3	1.0	13.3	18.5	68.8	69.6	71.5
11	NC State	Play-In Game	3-0	-1.3	0.7	14.0	18.1	68.4	68.5	72.6
11	Cincinnati	Play-In Game	2-1	-1.7	0.5	13.2	18.6	68.0	68.5	71.6
11	North Carolina	Play-In Game	3-0	-1.7	0.6	13.8	17.8	67.5	68.2	72.0
11	Utah State	Play-In Game	3-0	-1.5	0.3	14.0	17.7	67.8	67.7	72.4
11	TCU	Play-In Game	3-0	-1.9	0.2	11.3	17.5	66.9	67.3	67.4
11	Minnesota	Last 4 In	4-0	-1.7	0.5	12.5	16.8	66.8	67.3	69.0
11	Oklahoma State	Last 4 In	2-1	-2.2	-0.0	12.4	17.3	66.2	66.8	69.2
12	Grand Canyon	Auto Bid	3-0	-1.4	0.1	13.7	17.2	67.7	66.9	71.4
12	Santa Clara	Auto Bid	4-0	-3.4	-1.8	14.2	13.1	61.0	60.5	69.6
12	Oregon	Last 4 In	3-0	-2.2	0.0	11.9	17.1	66.0	66.8	68.1
12	Iowa	Last 4 In	2-1	-2.4	-0.2	11.0	17.6	65.7	66.5	66.9
12	Wichita State	Auto Bid	2-1	-4.6	-3.2	11.6	12.5	58.1	57.5	64.6
13	UC Santa Barbara	Auto Bid	3-0	-3.6	-2.7	10.9	12.0	60.0	58.2	63.0
13	Murray State	Auto Bid	3-0	-4.5	-3.4	11.1	11.2	57.4	56.3	62.8
13	High Point	Auto Bid	4-0	-1.1	-0.5	9.0	15.9	67.5	64.9	62.2
13	Akron	Auto Bid	2-0	-4.5	-3.6	10.1	10.9	57.4	55.6	60.8
14	UNCW	Auto Bid	3-0	-4.6	-3.8	9.1	10.1	56.6	54.6	58.5
14	McNeese	Auto Bid	2-1	-4.2	-3.5	8.0	12.0	58.7	56.6	57.6
14	Wright State	Auto Bid	3-0	-4.6	-4.0	7.7	9.4	56.1	53.9	55.4
14	Furman	Auto Bid	4-0	-5.8	-5.2	6.4	7.0	52.2	50.0	51.4
15	Western Kentucky	Auto Bid	3-1	-8.5	-7.6	5.8	4.1	44.8	43.4	48.4
15	Montana State	Auto Bid	1-2	-6.7	-5.9	4.3	7.5	50.6	48.9	48.1
15	Harvard	Auto Bid	2-1	-7.9	-7.2	3.4	5.5	46.8	45.1	45.0
15	James Madison	Auto Bid	1-2	-8.4	-7.8	3.6	3.7	44.7	42.9	44.3
15	Central Arkansas	Auto Bid	2-1	-8.6	-7.8	2.1	1.3	42.9	41.2	39.9
15	Howard	Auto Bid	2-2	-8.5	-8.0	0.7	4.4	44.9	42.9	39.5
16	St. Thomas (MN)	Auto Bid	2-2	-9.8	-9.0	1.9	0.9	40.2	38.6	39.4
16	American	Auto Bid	1-2	-9.0	-8.2	1.2	1.2	41.9	40.4	38.2
16	Queens (NC)	Auto Bid	2-2	-9.6	-8.8	1.5	0.1	39.9	38.5	38.1
16	Siena	Auto Bid	2-1	-10.1	-9.4	1.3	-0.7	38.5	36.8	37.2
16	Vermont	Auto Bid	1-2	-9.5	-9.0	0.4	1.6	41.1	39.1	37.1
16	Tennessee State	Auto Bid	2-1	-7.7	-7.2	-0.3	3.1	45.7	43.5	36.8
16	Bethune-Cookman	Auto Bid	0-4	-10.7	-9.6	-0.1	0.8	38.2	37.5	35.5
16	LIU	Auto Bid	0-4	-13.8	-12.9	-3.5	-2.6	29.6	28.8	27.1
Out	Georgia	First 4 Out	3-0	-2.6	-0.6	9.9	16.2	64.4	64.9	63.9
Out	Mississippi State	First 4 Out	3-0	-2.9	-0.7	10.8	16.1	63.8	64.7	65.5
Out	New Mexico	First 4 Out	3-0	-2.3	-0.7	13.8	15.7	64.8	64.3	70.7
Out	Florida State	First 4 Out	2-1	-3.0	-1.0	11.0	15.6	63.5	63.6	65.6
Out	Providence	Next 4 Out	2-1	-3.5	-1.2	11.6	15.6	62.3	63.5	66.7
Out	Arizona State	Next 4 Out	3-0	-3.3	-1.3	11.0	14.5	62.0	62.4	64.7
Out	VCU	Next 4 Out	2-1	-3.3	-1.5	13.0	15.4	62.7	62.6	69.0
Out	Notre Dame	Next 4 Out	4-0	-3.7	-1.6	10.6	13.4	60.6	61.1	63.2