Basketball Tournament Projections

NCAA tournament projections based on 1,000 season simulations using composite ratings.

How the field is set: The 44 at-large teams with the highest TWV 50 make the field, joining the 32 automatic bids. Teams are then seeded by a blend of 65% TWV and 35% rating. Seeds 1–4 use TWV 30, seeds 5–11 use TWV 50, and seeds 12–16 use TWV 200. This provided the closest match to the actual field and seeds over the past 2 seasons.

Proj Rtg blends today's rating with how the team projects to play the rest of the season, weighted by games remaining.

Blend 30 / 50 / 200 = 65% that TWV + 35% rating, scaled so the top team is 100 and the bottom is 0. Each seed tier is ordered on its own blend; play-in pairs share a slot, so a pair can sit just out of blend order.

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