Basketball Tournament Projections

Seed	Team	Category	Record	Proj TWV 30	Proj TWV 50decides bid	Proj TWV 200	Proj Rtg	Blend 30	Blend 50	Blend 200
1	Duke	Auto Bid	2-0	8.2	11.0	23.5	35.1	100.0	100.0	100.0
1	Florida	Auto Bid	2-0	8.5	11.5	23.4	32.9	99.3	99.6	98.4
1	Illinois	Auto Bid	2-0	7.9	11.0	23.5	33.1	98.2	98.7	98.7
1	Kansas	Auto Bid	2-0	6.9	9.8	22.4	31.0	94.8	95.2	95.5
2	Houston	At Large	1-0	5.9	8.9	21.8	29.6	92.0	92.6	93.6
2	Michigan State	At Large	2-0	4.9	7.6	19.6	28.3	89.2	89.4	89.1
2	UConn	Auto Bid	2-0	4.8	7.8	19.3	28.2	89.0	89.7	88.5
2	Texas	At Large	2-0	4.1	6.9	17.4	27.2	86.9	87.4	84.5
3	Gonzaga	Auto Bid	2-0	4.2	6.8	21.0	26.6	86.8	86.9	90.3
3	Arizona	At Large	1-1	3.6	6.5	17.8	26.7	85.6	86.3	84.9
3	Louisville	At Large	2-0	3.2	6.1	18.6	25.4	84.1	84.8	85.4
3	UCLA	At Large	2-0	3.3	6.1	18.3	24.8	83.7	84.3	84.6
4	Vanderbilt	At Large	2-0	2.9	5.5	16.4	24.9	83.0	83.4	81.3
4	Texas Tech	At Large	2-0	2.8	5.5	15.7	25.0	83.0	83.4	80.2
4	Alabama	At Large	2-0	2.6	5.7	17.7	25.1	82.6	83.9	83.7
4	Virginia	At Large	2-0	2.7	5.3	17.3	24.7	82.5	82.9	82.8
5	Nebraska	At Large	2-0	2.7	5.5	17.3	24.1	82.1	82.7	82.4
5	Tennessee	At Large	1-0	2.2	5.1	15.9	24.1	81.1	82.1	80.0
5	Marquette	At Large	2-0	2.0	4.9	17.5	23.6	80.4	81.5	82.4
5	BYU	At Large	2-0	2.1	4.9	17.8	23.2	80.4	81.1	82.7
6	Iowa State	At Large	1-1	1.8	4.5	15.6	24.3	80.5	81.1	79.6
6	Miami	At Large	1-1	1.8	4.4	15.9	23.5	80.1	80.4	79.6
6	Arkansas	At Large	1-0	1.5	4.1	14.4	23.0	79.0	79.6	76.7
6	St. John's	At Large	1-0	0.8	3.8	16.9	22.1	77.1	78.4	80.4
7	Michigan	At Large	1-1	0.5	3.5	15.3	21.9	76.4	77.8	77.7
7	Auburn	At Large	1-0	0.5	3.3	14.3	21.4	76.0	77.0	75.6
7	Texas A&M	At Large	2-0	0.3	3.1	13.5	21.4	75.7	76.7	74.2
7	LSU	At Large	2-0	0.3	3.0	14.1	21.0	75.3	76.2	75.0
8	Kentucky	At Large	2-0	0.1	2.8	13.0	20.9	74.9	75.7	72.9
8	Ohio State	At Large	1-1	-0.5	2.2	13.6	20.8	73.8	74.6	74.0
8	Baylor	At Large	2-0	-0.4	2.3	13.4	20.2	73.6	74.5	73.2
8	Cincinnati	At Large	2-0	-0.5	2.2	14.8	19.9	73.1	74.0	75.6
9	Missouri	At Large	1-1	-0.9	1.9	11.6	20.7	72.9	73.9	70.5
9	West Virginia	At Large	2-0	-0.7	2.1	13.6	19.8	72.7	73.8	73.3
9	USC	At Large	1-0	-0.9	1.9	14.8	19.6	72.0	73.3	75.4
9	Oklahoma State	At Large	2-0	-0.9	1.8	14.2	19.5	72.1	73.0	74.3
10	Indiana	At Large	2-0	-1.3	1.5	13.8	19.2	71.0	72.4	73.2
10	TCU	At Large	2-0	-1.1	1.5	12.5	19.0	71.3	72.1	70.9
10	Xavier	Play-In Game	2-0	-1.4	1.4	13.8	18.7	70.5	71.9	72.9
10	Iowa	Play-In Game	2-0	-1.4	1.4	12.8	18.7	70.6	71.8	71.3
10	Villanova	Play-In Game	1-1	-1.9	1.0	13.1	19.3	70.0	71.4	72.2
10	Ole Miss	Play-In Game	2-0	-1.7	1.1	12.3	18.4	69.9	71.0	70.2
11	Virginia Tech	Play-In Game	2-0	-2.1	0.6	14.2	17.8	68.6	69.8	73.1
11	North Carolina	Play-In Game	2-0	-2.3	0.5	13.6	17.7	68.2	69.6	72.0
11	Saint Louis	Auto Bid	2-0	-1.3	0.8	16.3	17.2	69.8	69.8	76.4
11	Purdue	Play-In Game	0-2	-2.8	0.1	13.1	18.6	67.6	69.3	71.8
11	Georgia	Play-In Game	2-0	-2.3	0.3	10.8	17.4	68.1	69.0	67.1
11	Utah State	Last 4 In	2-0	-2.0	0.2	14.1	17.4	68.5	68.8	72.7
11	NC State	Last 4 In	2-0	-2.4	0.1	13.7	17.0	67.5	68.3	71.8
12	Creighton	Last 4 In	2-0	-3.0	0.0	12.5	17.0	66.3	68.2	69.7
12	Oregon	Last 4 In	2-0	-2.8	0.0	12.1	16.9	66.7	68.1	69.0
12	Grand Canyon	Auto Bid	2-0	-2.1	-0.3	13.2	16.5	67.9	67.3	70.6
12	Saint Mary's	Auto Bid	2-0	-3.8	-2.0	13.6	13.1	62.3	62.0	69.1
12	Wichita State	Auto Bid	1-0	-4.7	-2.9	11.9	12.1	60.0	59.8	65.7
13	High Point	Auto Bid	3-0	-1.5	-0.7	9.2	15.3	68.3	65.7	62.8
13	Akron	Auto Bid	1-0	-4.4	-3.4	10.5	11.3	60.0	58.3	62.6
13	Murray State	Auto Bid	2-0	-5.7	-4.2	10.7	10.0	56.7	56.0	62.2
13	UC Santa Barbara	Auto Bid	2-0	-5.2	-4.0	9.9	10.2	57.9	56.4	60.9
14	McNeese	Auto Bid	1-1	-4.2	-3.4	8.6	12.1	60.9	58.8	59.8
14	UNCW	Auto Bid	2-0	-5.7	-4.9	8.7	8.4	55.6	53.7	57.7
14	Wright State	Auto Bid	2-0	-6.1	-5.2	7.0	7.9	54.7	52.8	54.4
14	Western Kentucky	Auto Bid	2-0	-7.3	-6.2	7.5	5.8	50.9	49.6	54.0
15	Furman	Auto Bid	3-0	-6.1	-5.4	6.2	6.7	53.9	51.7	52.3
15	Harvard	Auto Bid	1-0	-6.9	-6.0	5.1	5.9	51.7	50.1	50.0
15	Montana State	Auto Bid	1-1	-7.0	-6.0	4.6	7.0	52.2	50.7	49.7
15	St. Thomas (MN)	Auto Bid	1-1	-8.0	-7.2	4.2	3.3	48.0	46.3	46.8
15	Arkansas State	Auto Bid	1-1	-8.2	-7.5	3.6	3.0	47.3	45.5	45.5
15	Vermont	Auto Bid	1-1	-8.0	-7.4	2.4	3.6	48.2	46.0	43.9
16	Central Arkansas	Auto Bid	1-1	-8.7	-7.8	2.2	2.5	46.1	44.6	42.8
16	Howard	Auto Bid	1-1	-8.4	-7.7	1.3	3.2	47.2	45.1	41.7
16	Queens (NC)	Auto Bid	2-1	-9.5	-8.4	1.8	0.6	43.4	42.2	41.0
16	American	Auto Bid	0-2	-9.7	-8.7	1.0	1.9	43.7	42.5	40.4
16	Tennessee State	Auto Bid	1-1	-7.9	-7.3	-0.3	3.3	48.1	46.0	39.0
16	Iona	Auto Bid	2-0	-10.2	-9.4	0.9	-1.0	40.9	39.4	38.4
16	Bethune-Cookman	Auto Bid	0-3	-11.3	-9.9	-0.1	0.1	39.3	39.0	37.4
16	LIU	Auto Bid	0-3	-12.7	-11.7	-2.2	-1.4	35.5	34.9	32.9
Out	Florida State	First 4 Out	2-0	-2.8	-0.4	11.9	16.4	66.4	67.1	68.2
Out	Wisconsin	First 4 Out	2-0	-3.2	-0.4	11.9	16.3	65.4	66.9	68.2
Out	New Mexico	First 4 Out	2-0	-2.8	-0.9	13.7	15.4	65.8	65.6	70.8
Out	Oklahoma	First 4 Out	1-1	-3.6	-0.9	9.8	17.0	65.1	66.4	65.0
Out	Providence	Next 4 Out	1-1	-3.9	-1.0	11.9	15.9	63.8	65.7	68.0
Out	Clemson	Next 4 Out	2-0	-3.9	-1.1	11.9	15.2	63.4	64.9	67.6
Out	Minnesota	Next 4 Out	2-0	-3.8	-1.2	10.9	15.0	63.4	64.8	65.7
Out	San Diego State	Next 4 Out	2-0	-3.6	-1.4	11.4	13.9	63.3	63.6	65.8

NCAA tournament projections based on 1,000 season simulations using composite ratings.

How the field is set: The 44 at-large teams with the highest TWV 50 make the field, joining the 32 automatic bids. Teams are then seeded by a blend of 65% TWV and 35% rating. Seeds 1–4 use TWV 30, seeds 5–11 use TWV 50, and seeds 12–16 use TWV 200. This provided the closest match to the actual field and seeds over the past 2 seasons.

Proj Rtg blends today's rating with how the team projects to play the rest of the season, weighted by games remaining.

Blend 30 / 50 / 200 = 65% that TWV + 35% rating, scaled so the top team is 100 and the bottom is 0. Each seed tier is ordered on its own blend; play-in pairs share a slot, so a pair can sit just out of blend order.

TWV and blend used to seed the team (TWV 50 for teams outside the field)

Featured in Bracket Matrix Blog. Bracket Matrix site here.

Team secured auto bid

Potential Multi-Bid Conferences

13 teams

11 teams

7 teams

6 teams

2 teams

1 team

F4O

N4O

F4O

N4O

F4O

Conferences with multiple teams projected to be in the NCAA Tournament or with bubble teams in first four out/next four out.

Seed	Team	Category	Record	Proj TWV 30	Proj TWV 50decides bid	Proj TWV 200	Proj Rtg	Blend 30	Blend 50	Blend 200
1	Duke	Auto Bid	2-0	8.2	11.0	23.5	35.1	100.0	100.0	100.0
1	Florida	Auto Bid	2-0	8.5	11.5	23.4	32.9	99.3	99.6	98.4
1	Illinois	Auto Bid	2-0	7.9	11.0	23.5	33.1	98.2	98.7	98.7
1	Kansas	Auto Bid	2-0	6.9	9.8	22.4	31.0	94.8	95.2	95.5
2	Houston	At Large	1-0	5.9	8.9	21.8	29.6	92.0	92.6	93.6
2	Michigan State	At Large	2-0	4.9	7.6	19.6	28.3	89.2	89.4	89.1
2	UConn	Auto Bid	2-0	4.8	7.8	19.3	28.2	89.0	89.7	88.5
2	Texas	At Large	2-0	4.1	6.9	17.4	27.2	86.9	87.4	84.5
3	Gonzaga	Auto Bid	2-0	4.2	6.8	21.0	26.6	86.8	86.9	90.3
3	Arizona	At Large	1-1	3.6	6.5	17.8	26.7	85.6	86.3	84.9
3	Louisville	At Large	2-0	3.2	6.1	18.6	25.4	84.1	84.8	85.4
3	UCLA	At Large	2-0	3.3	6.1	18.3	24.8	83.7	84.3	84.6
4	Vanderbilt	At Large	2-0	2.9	5.5	16.4	24.9	83.0	83.4	81.3
4	Texas Tech	At Large	2-0	2.8	5.5	15.7	25.0	83.0	83.4	80.2
4	Alabama	At Large	2-0	2.6	5.7	17.7	25.1	82.6	83.9	83.7
4	Virginia	At Large	2-0	2.7	5.3	17.3	24.7	82.5	82.9	82.8
5	Nebraska	At Large	2-0	2.7	5.5	17.3	24.1	82.1	82.7	82.4
5	Tennessee	At Large	1-0	2.2	5.1	15.9	24.1	81.1	82.1	80.0
5	Marquette	At Large	2-0	2.0	4.9	17.5	23.6	80.4	81.5	82.4
5	BYU	At Large	2-0	2.1	4.9	17.8	23.2	80.4	81.1	82.7
6	Iowa State	At Large	1-1	1.8	4.5	15.6	24.3	80.5	81.1	79.6
6	Miami	At Large	1-1	1.8	4.4	15.9	23.5	80.1	80.4	79.6
6	Arkansas	At Large	1-0	1.5	4.1	14.4	23.0	79.0	79.6	76.7
6	St. John's	At Large	1-0	0.8	3.8	16.9	22.1	77.1	78.4	80.4
7	Michigan	At Large	1-1	0.5	3.5	15.3	21.9	76.4	77.8	77.7
7	Auburn	At Large	1-0	0.5	3.3	14.3	21.4	76.0	77.0	75.6
7	Texas A&M	At Large	2-0	0.3	3.1	13.5	21.4	75.7	76.7	74.2
7	LSU	At Large	2-0	0.3	3.0	14.1	21.0	75.3	76.2	75.0
8	Kentucky	At Large	2-0	0.1	2.8	13.0	20.9	74.9	75.7	72.9
8	Ohio State	At Large	1-1	-0.5	2.2	13.6	20.8	73.8	74.6	74.0
8	Baylor	At Large	2-0	-0.4	2.3	13.4	20.2	73.6	74.5	73.2
8	Cincinnati	At Large	2-0	-0.5	2.2	14.8	19.9	73.1	74.0	75.6
9	Missouri	At Large	1-1	-0.9	1.9	11.6	20.7	72.9	73.9	70.5
9	West Virginia	At Large	2-0	-0.7	2.1	13.6	19.8	72.7	73.8	73.3
9	USC	At Large	1-0	-0.9	1.9	14.8	19.6	72.0	73.3	75.4
9	Oklahoma State	At Large	2-0	-0.9	1.8	14.2	19.5	72.1	73.0	74.3
10	Indiana	At Large	2-0	-1.3	1.5	13.8	19.2	71.0	72.4	73.2
10	TCU	At Large	2-0	-1.1	1.5	12.5	19.0	71.3	72.1	70.9
10	Xavier	Play-In Game	2-0	-1.4	1.4	13.8	18.7	70.5	71.9	72.9
10	Iowa	Play-In Game	2-0	-1.4	1.4	12.8	18.7	70.6	71.8	71.3
10	Villanova	Play-In Game	1-1	-1.9	1.0	13.1	19.3	70.0	71.4	72.2
10	Ole Miss	Play-In Game	2-0	-1.7	1.1	12.3	18.4	69.9	71.0	70.2
11	Virginia Tech	Play-In Game	2-0	-2.1	0.6	14.2	17.8	68.6	69.8	73.1
11	North Carolina	Play-In Game	2-0	-2.3	0.5	13.6	17.7	68.2	69.6	72.0
11	Saint Louis	Auto Bid	2-0	-1.3	0.8	16.3	17.2	69.8	69.8	76.4
11	Purdue	Play-In Game	0-2	-2.8	0.1	13.1	18.6	67.6	69.3	71.8
11	Georgia	Play-In Game	2-0	-2.3	0.3	10.8	17.4	68.1	69.0	67.1
11	Utah State	Last 4 In	2-0	-2.0	0.2	14.1	17.4	68.5	68.8	72.7
11	NC State	Last 4 In	2-0	-2.4	0.1	13.7	17.0	67.5	68.3	71.8
12	Creighton	Last 4 In	2-0	-3.0	0.0	12.5	17.0	66.3	68.2	69.7
12	Oregon	Last 4 In	2-0	-2.8	0.0	12.1	16.9	66.7	68.1	69.0
12	Grand Canyon	Auto Bid	2-0	-2.1	-0.3	13.2	16.5	67.9	67.3	70.6
12	Saint Mary's	Auto Bid	2-0	-3.8	-2.0	13.6	13.1	62.3	62.0	69.1
12	Wichita State	Auto Bid	1-0	-4.7	-2.9	11.9	12.1	60.0	59.8	65.7
13	High Point	Auto Bid	3-0	-1.5	-0.7	9.2	15.3	68.3	65.7	62.8
13	Akron	Auto Bid	1-0	-4.4	-3.4	10.5	11.3	60.0	58.3	62.6
13	Murray State	Auto Bid	2-0	-5.7	-4.2	10.7	10.0	56.7	56.0	62.2
13	UC Santa Barbara	Auto Bid	2-0	-5.2	-4.0	9.9	10.2	57.9	56.4	60.9
14	McNeese	Auto Bid	1-1	-4.2	-3.4	8.6	12.1	60.9	58.8	59.8
14	UNCW	Auto Bid	2-0	-5.7	-4.9	8.7	8.4	55.6	53.7	57.7
14	Wright State	Auto Bid	2-0	-6.1	-5.2	7.0	7.9	54.7	52.8	54.4
14	Western Kentucky	Auto Bid	2-0	-7.3	-6.2	7.5	5.8	50.9	49.6	54.0
15	Furman	Auto Bid	3-0	-6.1	-5.4	6.2	6.7	53.9	51.7	52.3
15	Harvard	Auto Bid	1-0	-6.9	-6.0	5.1	5.9	51.7	50.1	50.0
15	Montana State	Auto Bid	1-1	-7.0	-6.0	4.6	7.0	52.2	50.7	49.7
15	St. Thomas (MN)	Auto Bid	1-1	-8.0	-7.2	4.2	3.3	48.0	46.3	46.8
15	Arkansas State	Auto Bid	1-1	-8.2	-7.5	3.6	3.0	47.3	45.5	45.5
15	Vermont	Auto Bid	1-1	-8.0	-7.4	2.4	3.6	48.2	46.0	43.9
16	Central Arkansas	Auto Bid	1-1	-8.7	-7.8	2.2	2.5	46.1	44.6	42.8
16	Howard	Auto Bid	1-1	-8.4	-7.7	1.3	3.2	47.2	45.1	41.7
16	Queens (NC)	Auto Bid	2-1	-9.5	-8.4	1.8	0.6	43.4	42.2	41.0
16	American	Auto Bid	0-2	-9.7	-8.7	1.0	1.9	43.7	42.5	40.4
16	Tennessee State	Auto Bid	1-1	-7.9	-7.3	-0.3	3.3	48.1	46.0	39.0
16	Iona	Auto Bid	2-0	-10.2	-9.4	0.9	-1.0	40.9	39.4	38.4
16	Bethune-Cookman	Auto Bid	0-3	-11.3	-9.9	-0.1	0.1	39.3	39.0	37.4
16	LIU	Auto Bid	0-3	-12.7	-11.7	-2.2	-1.4	35.5	34.9	32.9
Out	Florida State	First 4 Out	2-0	-2.8	-0.4	11.9	16.4	66.4	67.1	68.2
Out	Wisconsin	First 4 Out	2-0	-3.2	-0.4	11.9	16.3	65.4	66.9	68.2
Out	New Mexico	First 4 Out	2-0	-2.8	-0.9	13.7	15.4	65.8	65.6	70.8
Out	Oklahoma	First 4 Out	1-1	-3.6	-0.9	9.8	17.0	65.1	66.4	65.0
Out	Providence	Next 4 Out	1-1	-3.9	-1.0	11.9	15.9	63.8	65.7	68.0
Out	Clemson	Next 4 Out	2-0	-3.9	-1.1	11.9	15.2	63.4	64.9	67.6
Out	Minnesota	Next 4 Out	2-0	-3.8	-1.2	10.9	15.0	63.4	64.8	65.7
Out	San Diego State	Next 4 Out	2-0	-3.6	-1.4	11.4	13.9	63.3	63.6	65.8